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Ascot Race 7: Crown Perth Winterbottom Stakes 1200m

20/11/2015: Watermans Bay has a strong record this track and distance and attempts this year to win this 2nd up after running 2nd last year at 4th run in. A little disappointing last time but not a noted 1st up performer and will be much better suited here by the firmer track and extra 100 of this event. Looks suited by the expected pace and should be charging late. Crowd favourite Buffering is probably a little past his best but recent form against the nations sprinting cream suggests he is more than capable of winning this for a second time after being triumphant 2 years back. Will find the lead and take a power of getting past in what will be an easier assignment than in recent runs. Fast N Rocking found the line well when last start 4th in hot Group 1 sprint at Moonee Valley behind Chautauqua and with the right run can pose a genuine winning chance if breaks go his way in the run. Magnifisio won this race last year and has failed to salute in 5 subsequent runs but showed a return to best with strong finishing effort last time behind local champ Black Heart Bart. Has to contend with horror draw but if can get cover in 3 wide line no surprise to see this mare go back to back in this event. Sujet is still a restricted galloper but has won 3 from 4 when racing 1st up and is one to add value to the exotics.

Ascot Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 18:50, 21/11/2015

RACEMAPCrown Perth Winterbottom Stakes 1200m
Front Runners (10) Buffering, (15) Dawn Approach, (5) Liberty's Gem.
On Pacers (12) Lucky Street, (8) Rommel, (9) Checkpoint, (1) Cool Trade, (14) Madassa.
Mid Fielders (6) Rock Magic, (7) Silverstream, (13) Akhedasset.
Get Back (3) Fast N Rocking, (11) Watermans Bay, (16) Sujet, (2) Shining Knight, (17) Magnifisio.
PACE COMMENTS Plenty of frontal pressure here with 3 designated leaders and a host of on pace runners. Buffering is expected to cross from gate 10 and take up the running, which will leave 7 runners jostling for positions just in behind which all points to a pretty hectic first sectional and most likely a fast overall pace. This predicted pace should admirably suit run on horses like Watermans Bay who should be charging late.
CHANCESCrown Perth Winterbottom Stakes 1200mOrderMargin
Watermans Bay PLUS: Strong record this track and distance, runner up this race last year, expected strong pace suits. A 0
  MINUS: Can get a long way back.    
Buffering PLUS: Proven Grp 1 performer, won this race 2 years back 4th up and is 4th up again here. B 0.5
  MINUS: Drawn a little wide, had better lead in form in 2013.    
Fast N Rocking PLUS: Twice placed Grp 1, 3 time winner this distance, top run when 4th to Chautauqua last run. C 1.25
  MINUS: Career win strike rate could be better.    
Magnifisio PLUS: Won this race last year, charged home from last at latest run behind Black Heart Bart. D 1.5
  MINUS: Has horror gate in 17.    
Sujet PLUS: Has won 3 from 4 when racing 1st up. E 2.5
  MINUS: Massive class rise, yet to win past BM 72 grade.    
Quadrella Race# Ascot 21 November 2015
Ascot 6 Sky Racing W.A. Guineas 1600m
Ascot 7 Crown Perth Winterbottom Stakes 1200m
Ascot 8 James Boag's Premium Railway Stakes 1600m
Ascot 9 Tattersall's Cup 2100m
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