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Ballarat Race 7: Magic Millions 3 & 4 Year Olds Classic 1100m

20/11/2015: Firstly, I am taking on Wild Rain, in the quadrella as I just do not think she is value at a tick over $3 against the males on what I expect to be a rock hard track by race 7. Her best runs, just, have been on wet tracks and I can see her being run down in the last fifty metres. Where she concerns me is that she is so well weighted using the handicappers ratings but it’s not all about weights for mine. I think there is less than a length between Husson Eagle, Illustrious Lad and Nordic Empire with Murt The Flirt my knockout hope based on his statistics at the good odds around $21.

Ballarat Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 16:00, 21/11/2015

RACEMAPMagic Millions 3 & 4 Year Olds Classic 1100m
Front Runners (2) Magnette, (6) Prompt Return, (13) Wild Rain
On Pacers (11) Our Catch, (14) Moonlight Hussler, (16) Captain Crackerjack, (17) Murt The Flirt.
Mid Fielders (3) Lassies Venture, (4) Honourable Tycoon, (5) Husson Eagle, (10) Nordic Empire, (12) Illustrious Lad.
Get Back (1) Lock And Load, (7) Reigning Meteor, (8) Tapestry Vision, (9) Boundary, (15) Our Sumpent.
PACE COMMENTS Magnette and Prompt Return look to be the early leaders with the possibility the on pacers drawn wide (Our Catch, Moonlight Hussler, Captain Crackerjack, Murt The Flirt) will need to go forward otherwise risk being caught wide. I have no concerns with the early pace which should suit all runners.
CHANCESMagic Millions 3 & 4 Year Olds Classic 1100mOrderMargin
Husson Eagle PLUS: All wins on good tracks, two wins from three runs first up, one from one at the distance. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back with 59kg.    
Illustrious Lad PLUS: Distance no issue, three times good track winner, two wins from three first up runs. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Nordic Empire PLUS: Unbeaten first up from three attempts, distance no issue based on 1200m runs, dry tack fine. C 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Murt The Flirt PLUS: Two wins from two starts at the track, unbeaten first up from two runs, distance winner only run. D 0.75
  MINUS: Wide barrier.    
Wild Rain PLUS: Big weight advantage via handicappers ratings, three distance wins, twice winner on good tracks. E 1.5
  MINUS: Best runs on soft tracks near this level, last 100 metres concern on dry track, mare versus males.    
Quadrella Race# Ballarat 21 November 2015
Ballarat 7 Magic Millions 3 & 4 Year Olds Classic 1100m
Ballarat 8 Ballarat Cup 2200m
Ballarat 9 Eureka Concrete BM84 1400m
Ballarat 10 Isuzu Handicap 1200m
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