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Ballarat Race 8: Ballarat Cup 2200m

20/11/2015: The win by Casino Dancer in last week's Eclipse Stakes stamps the run of Ungrateful Ellen as a top chance in the Ballarat Cup. Ungrateful Ellen never saw the fence all the way being caught three wide most of the journey and although she had cover behind Pondarosa Miss extra ground was clearly covered. She should have beaten Casino Dancer. Tooleybuc Kid is one of those horses who needs a few toughening up runs early in a preparation as evidenced by his excellent five wins from nineteen runs when fourth up or deeper into a campaign and that's not including the forgive runs prior to a spell. He is now ready as last start losing a shoe would not have aided his cause when beaten less than two lengths in the Bendigo Cup, a race where subsequent Flemington winner Divan ran second. Index Linked just did not fire in the MacKinnon Stakes on the damp track and perhaps because it was leader dominated would not have helped as well. Forgive the run and we find a C Waller trained runner at double figure odds in a winnable race considering he was a bit stiff to be beaten in the Mornington Cup. Maygrove didn't give a yelp of any note last Saturday so I am going to be forgiving and hark back to the Bendigo Cup fifth finishing next to Tooleybuc Kid as the key run leading to this race. Mujadale strolled away with this race last year after winning the Ararat Cup, a race he just missed out on winning last start. If his fitness is not an issue after the 41 day break I am worried about he can repeat last years victory.

Ballarat Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 16:40, 21/11/2015

RACEMAPBallarat Cup 2200m
Front Runners (1) Zayam, (11) Lord Durante.
On Pacers (2) Mujadale, (8) Don Doremo, (9) Maygrove, (13) Prince Cheri.
Mid Fielders (3) Ponderosa Miss, (4) Crafty Cruiser, (5) Akzar, (6) Junoob, (7) Ungrateful Ellen, (10) Index Linked, (12) Digitalism, (14) Wales, (15) Tooleybuc Kid, (18) Sysmo.
Get Back (16) Sonntag, (17) Tanby.
PACE COMMENTS The Ballarat Cup risks being one of those unevenly run distance races as I only have Zayam and Lord Durante leading however Mujadale (bless his heart) led most of the way last year and may well take up the baton. I don’t really see my other on pacers leading so I am a bit wary about the pace but perhaps this race will be more about distance ability than pace. Ungrateful Ellen is the pre post favourite at around $5.50 and all things considered, pace wise, that seems acceptable for a mid fielder.
CHANCESBallarat Cup 2200mOrderMargin
Ungrateful Ellen PLUS: Distance no issue as second this distance to Winx, good track suitable, Casino Dancer form line strong. A 0
  MINUS: Mare versus males, can get back in a field.    
Tooleybuc Kid PLUS: Five good track wins, lost a plate last run, five wins from nineteen runs fourth up or deeper, ready. B 0.25
  MINUS: Very slight distance doubt.    
Index Linked PLUS: Eleven good track wins, distance no issue, C Waller trained, forgive last run on damp track. C 0.75
  MINUS: Can get back in a field.    
Maygrove PLUS: On quick backup from unsuitable wfa race, Bendigo Cup form lines strong, distance no issue. D 1
  MINUS: Concern about flat run last Saturday, possibly track was too hard, will be hard track today.    
Mujadale PLUS: Last years winner, two wins from two track and distance runs, ten good track wins, on pace or leads. E 2
  MINUS: 41 days set back three runs ago.    
Quadrella Race# Ballarat 21 November 2015
Ballarat 7 Magic Millions 3 & 4 Year Olds Classic 1100m
Ballarat 8 Ballarat Cup 2200m
Ballarat 9 Eureka Concrete BM84 1400m
Ballarat 10 Isuzu Handicap 1200m
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