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Ballarat Race 9: Eureka Concrete BM84 1400m

20/11/2015: Firstly, I am taking on Durendal as I think he is a risk at the distance with 59kg. He did run second here over this distance (Profit Share was third) beaten by Making Mayhem who went to town but didn't really go with it in subsequent runs. His last run was good in a stronger race but I just have my doubts. Orion has form around Jessy Belle, Charmed Harmony and Refulgent from his last campaign and it took a strong ride from D Oliver to lift Mighty Like to beat him first up. A skerrick of improvement and he is right in this race. Volcanic Ash has a horror draw but Ballarat is the larger type of track which helps the mid fielders. He only has to run up to the form from his last campaign and his excellent distance statistics to be a top show in this race. Kingdom Of Dreams won three races straight two campaigns ago culminating in a city win at Moonee Valley (forget his last campaign as it only lasted two starts - something went wrong) and I am getting the feeling he is ready to step up in this race and add to his two third up wins. Profit Share often gets back in a field and needs luck as he needed last start when he was held up around the home turn in the China Bowl at Ararat. I am giving him one more chance but only just simply because I believe there will be enough pace early to suit him. Society Man is a third up winner in another life in Sydney and after his good run to Khutulun, a horse with ability, I am expecting a forward showing again for a horse placed fourteen times from sixteen good track runs. D Yendall aboard is a bonus as he knows Victorian country tracks like no other jockey in the state.

Ballarat Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 17:20, 21/11/2015

RACEMAPEureka Concrete BM84 1400m
Front Runners (10) Society Man.
On Pacers (1) Durendal, (2) Tax Evader, (4) Flow Meter, (6) Elmantosh, (9) Kingdom Of Dreams, (12) Fast And Free, (14) Mamwaazel, (16) Oltre Finito, (19) Steep.
Mid Fielders (3) Bel Rhythm, (7) Orion, (13) Cross Of Gold, (20) Volcanic Ash.
Get Back (5) Clairvaux, (8) Hinchley Wood, (11) Wrotham Heath, (15) To Be Honest, (17) Profit Share, (18) Diamonds At Noon.
PACE COMMENTS Although I only have one leader, Society Man, as I try to list them under their normal pattern around the distance, I don't for one minute believe he has it on his own out in front. I have about half the field as on pacers and I am sure one or two of them, if not more, will make a go of this race early. This is not a race to panic about pace wise.
CHANCESEureka Concrete BM84 1400mOrderMargin
Orion PLUS: Four good track wins, dual city winner last campaign, distance suitable. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Volcanic Ash PLUS: Three wins from four good track runs, three wins from four distance runs, dual Caulfield winner. B 0.25
  MINUS: Wide barrier but big track lessens the problem.    
Kingdom Of Dreams PLUS: Six good track wins, two wins from three third up runs, two wins from six at the distance, on pacer. C 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Profit Share PLUS: Dry track suits, unlucky last start running on strongly when clear, distance suitable. D 1
  MINUS: Gets back, three seconds from six runs at the distance concerns.    
Society Man PLUS: Distance winner, very consistent on dry tracks, third up winner in Sydney. E 1.5
  MINUS: Eight seconds but only three wins from sixteen good track runs, could be a follower only.    
       
Quadrella Race# Ballarat 21 November 2015
Ballarat 7 Magic Millions 3 & 4 Year Olds Classic 1100m
Ballarat 8 Ballarat Cup 2200m
Ballarat 9 Eureka Concrete BM84 1400m
Ballarat 10 Isuzu Handicap 1200m
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