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Caulfield Race 10: Mypunter Anniversary Vase 1400m

17/04/2015: I rarely select get back types, and especially if they are favourites, but there is something about Under The Louvre which suggests he will win Group races and if so he can win this. He rounded up the field at Mornington as if they were nailed to the fence. Just the same don’t fall for silly odds (I will be looking for $4 as a minimum). Marianne nearly made it as my A selection as she loves this track and has been beaten by Noble Protector twice recently and that mare ran a wide all the way blinder in the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf at Randwick last Saturday. That’s a strong reference for this race. Sistine Demon tried so hard last start (my money weighed her down in the last few metres) and if he had drawn closer to the fence he would have been my A selection. It will be difficult to win from barrier eighteen at the tight 1400m at Caulfield. Bel Sprinter is finally out of Group 1 and Group 2 class and if this race was 1200m I would be rating him close to an A selection. However, at his first 1400m run it’s a bit of a puzzle as to what his chances really are. Certainly, weight and class wise, he is overs at $18. Mirage’s first up run was strong but it’s hard to know the full extent of his ability these days taking into account the two massive breaks he has had. We will know tomorrow but that’s too late! Pyrrolic has changed stables and his first up run was tip top so keep him safe. Place chances to Amorino, Gracious Prospect, Pin Your Hopes, Bippo No Bungus, Trade Commissioner, Precious Gem, Stratcombe and Refer.

Caulfield Race 10. RaceTime: AEST 17:20, 18/04/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (4) Mirage, (5) Lord Durante, (18) Sistine Demon.
On Pacers (1) London Stripe, (3) Marianne, (8) Gracious Prospect, (14) Bippo No Bungus.
Mid Fielders (6) Amorino, (7) Precious Gem, (9) Mutual Trust, (10) Pyrrolic, (13) Pin Your Hopes.
Get Back (2) Trade Commissioner, (11) Refer, (12) Bel Sprinter, (15) Vibrant Rouge, (16) Stratcombe, (17) Hosting, (19) Under The Louvre.
PACE COMMENTS With Sistine Demon sure to cross over from out wide and the likelihood Mirage and Lord Durante will kick through the pace early should be solid. Adding the chance that a couple of the on pacers may push forward as well we find a race with genuine pace.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Under The Louvre PLUS: Eight eighteen career, four four quinella track, four twelve good tracks. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Marianne PLUS: Four four quinella track, three three quinella track and distance, top mare beat her last run. B 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Sistine Demon PLUS: Two five track and distance leads again, five nine distance, seven nineteen good tracks. C 0.75
  MINUS: Wide barrier.    
Bel Sprinter PLUS: Three six track lost plate last run here close in last years Oakleigh Plate, eight wins. D 1
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Mirage PLUS: Four five career, needed last run off 385 days, can lead. E 1.5
  MINUS: Weird two runs in 805 days says injury concerns.    
Pyrrolic PLUS: Stable change, first up enormous wide all way. F 2
  MINUS: Gets back, zero five track, zero eight good tracks.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Lord Durante (doesn't fire fresh), Mutual Trust (hard to follow), London (one from nine first up).
OUTCLASSED Nil.
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 18 April 2015
Caulfield 7 VOBIS Gold Reef 1600m
Caulfield 8 VOBIS Gold Mile 1600m
Caulfield 9 TROA Bel Esprit Stakes 1100m
Caulfield 10 Mypunter Anniversary Vase 1400m
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