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Caulfield Race 3: Dilmah Teas Caulfield Sprint 1000m

16/10/2015: Tricky race where one could easily construct a valid winning case for 5 of the 8 runners. Speed map could set it up for a late swooper and that could very well be Lumosty from an in form stable. This mare was explosive when produced first up last campaign winning an open sprint at Flemington by 3 lengths. Has won this level against her own sex and if the predicted front end pressure is on, could set things up nicely for her to power home late over the top. Ball Of Muscle is an ultra consistent animal who is yet to miss a place in his career of 16 runs with a 50% winning strike rate. Is unbeaten in both runs at 4th run up and will again be right up in the firing line and take a power of beating. Kinglike is an emerging talent who is facing the toughest test of his brief 3 run career to date, impressive winning against own age last time but must reproduce against much more seasoned sprinters in this. Looks to have plenty of ability and no surprise to see him take it to another level here. Kuro must rate a leading chance as well and has won 2 from 3 this distance and has fine career strike rates, close up from wide draw last time at Caulfield and has better barrier here. Headwater performed strongly when 1.3 lengths 4th in Group 1 company last time and rounds out what should be the only genuine winning chances.

Caulfield Race 3. RaceTime: AEDT 14:00, 17/10/2015

RACEMAPDilmah Teas Caulfield Sprint 1000m
Front Runners (4) Ball Of Muscle, (3) Rain Affair.
On Pacers (7) Kuro, (1) Headwater.
Mid Fielders (5) Kinglike.
Get Back (8) Lumosty, (6) Last Day, (2) Eclair Choice.
PACE COMMENTS Small field here should see runners slot into their respective running positions fairly quickly. Top end lead speed will come from Ball Of Muscle and Rain Affair. Ball Of Muscle elected to take a sit last time just off the speed and may just ease out of the lead battle with Rain Affair who was slow to begin from wide gate last time and never got near the lead. Headwater should get a perfect trail from the inside gate as too should Kuro just settling off the speed. Kinglike is expected to settle a little further back behind this quartet but not far off the pace. Pace assessment here is genuine to fast which should suit Lumosity who will be a late closer.
CHANCESDilmah Teas Caulfield Sprint 1000mOrderMargin
Lumosty PLUS: Bolted in 1st up last preparation, suited by pace map in this, stable in good form at moment. A 0
  MINUS: Yet to be proven this level against the males.    
Ball Of Muscle PLUS: Ultra consistent with great strike rates, strong form this distance, unbeaten both 4th up runs. B 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Kinglike PLUS: Showing enormous early potential, won last 2 very easily. C 1
  MINUS: Rises in class here against older horses.    
Kuro PLUS: Placed twice in strong Grp 1 sprints, good strike rates. D 1.75
  MINUS: Yet to win past Listed level.    
Headwater PLUS: Good effort in Grp 1 company last time, winner this distance. E 2.25
  MINUS: Has been beaten last 5 starts.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 17 October 2015
Caulfield 3 Dilmah Teas Caulfield Sprint 1000m
Caulfield 4 N.Z. Bloodstock Ethereal Stakes 2000m
Caulfield 5 Ladbrokes Caulfield Classic 2000m
Caulfield 6 David Jones Cup 2000m
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