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Caulfield Race 6: JRA Handicap 1440m

22/04/2016: Races like this give me the heebie jeebies because the majority of the field can win as the field is littered with lightly raced runners I have taken on simply because I do not know their upper limits. Magna Rossa gets the nod because she is back to her own sex at this exact level from her last win when she beat Mossin' Around, twice placed at Group level since, and Lahqa, a recent city winner. It's hard to knock a horse that has won all three starts, with the last two fighting efforts, which is what Lyuba has done. Why can't she win again? Abbey Marie beat a maiden field at her only start but the runner up has since won a maiden as well so at least there is some sort positivity from both wins. If Lyuba goes in so does Deja Blue even though Lyuba has beaten her twice from two meetings. Francais has the job ahead of her from where I see her settling in the run but I never take a Chris Waller horse sent from Sydney too lightly. Air Apparent has a stack of ability as the five lengths defeat in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes shows and I am hanging my hat on that run and the fact she won third up last campaign, albeit in a maiden.

Caulfield Race 6. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEST 15:15, 23/04/2016

RACEMAPJRA Handicap 1440m
Front Runners (15) Jezzabba.
On Pacers (1) Magna Rossa, (5) Zafiki, (6) Lyuba, (9) Backstreet Lover.
Mid Fielders (7) Tiz My View, (10) Abbey Marie, (11) Air Apparent, (13) Rosenthal.
Get Back (2) Francais, (3) Deja Blue, (4) Jacosta, (8) Dulverton, (12) Pearl Star, (14) Dymphana, (16) Indarra.
PACE COMMENTS Jezzabba looks likely to cross over from her wide barrier otherwise risk being caught wide as there will be some pace closer to the rail as those runners try and take advantage of their better draws. Overall, this means the pace will be solid enough for the mid fielders to be afforded their chance of victory but the back markers look to be against the wall.
CHANCESJRA Handicap 1440mOrderMargin
Magna Rossa PLUS: Wide last run, off 49 days prior run, won last time in this grade against fillies, gets soft run off pace. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Lyuba PLUS: Unbeaten and charging through the class levels, Darren Weir taking advantage of up and coming apprentice 3kg claim. B 0.25
  MINUS: Last win in the wet, extra 140 metres.    
Abbey Marie PLUS: One win from one start with strong win from way back, runner up has won since at Sandown. C 0.5
  MINUS: Extra 140m, class rise from maiden, gets back to mid field.    
Deja Blue PLUS: Lyuba form only two meetings between the pair, 3kg claim huge help. D 0.75
  MINUS: Settles mid field at best so like Francais will need luck in the run.    
Francais PLUS: C Waller traveller from Sydney, minor class drop but useful. E 1.25
  MINUS: Gets back and will need to be ridden for luck from barrier 2.    
Air Apparent PLUS: Won third up last campaign then straight into Group 2 5 lengths defeat, couple of excuses for Caulfield poor record. F 1.75
  MINUS: Only win (third up) was in a maiden, one good track win from twelve runs but excuses for several.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 23 April 2016
Caulfield 6 JRA Handicap 1440m
Caulfield 7 Sandown Park UK Handicap 1100m
Caulfield 8 Sheen Group Bel Esprit Stakes 1100m
Caulfield 9 BECK Property Group Plate 2000m
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EXOTICS JRA Handicap 1440m
Exacta

A: 1 5 11

B: 1 4 5 7 9 11

Trifecta

A: 1 5 11

B: 1 4 5 7 9 11

C: 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 11

First Four

A: 1 5 11

B: 1 4 5 7 9 11

C: 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 11

D: 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 11

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