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Caulfield Race 7: Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m

26/02/2016: After studying the various sectionals and trying to assess which horse has real ability to devastate a field I keep coming back to the favourite Extreme Choice. If he loses it will be because of one of two reasons or both combined. One, the rider will go too fast in too many sectionals and leave Extreme Choice with no energy left in the vital last fifty metres or two, the horse will simply fail at the distance. Breeding wise I doubt the distance is an issue therefore the jockey is the key. If he can run about 10.40 (he has run 10.29) from the 400m to the 200m the race is over. My danger is Samara Dancer as she has a 2kg swing her way for the female allowance, is well drawn and is trained by a top class trainer. On sectionals, as I read them, she could struggle to beat Extreme Choice but it depends on how Craig Newitt reads the race. I have to respect Damien Oliver selecting Flying Artie so in he goes as the C selection. If he is third then Star Turn and Concealer slot in just behind. My roughie of the race is Miss Nymeria who will be ridden for luck along the fence. If the fence is not off have a saver thus watch the early races for clues.

Caulfield Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 16:45, 27/02/2016

RACEMAPBlue Diamond Stakes 1200m
Front Runners (1) Hell Of An Effort, (10) Start Turn, (13) Extreme Choice.
On Pacers (4) Hey Doc, (5) Samara Dancer, (15) Areti, (18) Selenia.
Mid Fielders (6) Concealer, (8) Valliano, (14) China Dream, (17) Flying Artie.
Get Back (3) Miss Nymeria, (7) Zamzam, (9) Power Trip,(12) Highland Beat, (16) Sweet Sherry, (19) Kinetic Design.
PACE COMMENTS This is a Blue Diamond Stakes and any horse that jumps well, even if that hasn't been their normal pattern, will go forward. In creating my race map I noticed a few of the runners had inconsistent early pace and it seems the stables may have been experimenting. There will be no experiments happening in this race so expect a good solid pace providing a winning chance to all runners.
CHANCESBlue Diamond Stakes 1200mOrderMargin
Extreme Choice PLUS: Unbeaten and can run the sectionals to street them. A 0
  MINUS: Last fifty metres if distance is an issue, wide draw but that should not be a major issue with one turn.    
Samara Dancer PLUS: Unbeaten, has the allowance for a filly, perfect draw B 0.5
  MINUS: Filly versus males, distance slight doubt.    
Flying Artie PLUS: Damien Oliver choice over the favourite, strong in the finish last start. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back and will need to run top sectionals or hope leaders weaken.    
Star Turn PLUS: Drawn well, jockey has won this race four times, races near the pace. D 1.25
  MINUS: Only win against weak company but did stroll in.    
Concealer PLUS: Huge run to Samara Dancer, top chance if jumps on that run. E 1.5
  MINUS: Slight doubt about jumping cleanly.    
Miss Nymeria PLUS: Huge runs both defeats in slick sectionals. F 2
  MINUS: Needs to jump cleanly.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 27 February 2016
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EXOTICS Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m
Exacta

A: 1

B: 4 10 11 15

Trifecta

A: 1

B: 4 10 11 15

C: 3 4 10 11 15

First Four

A: 1

B: 4 10 11 15

C: 3 4 10 11 15

D: 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 15

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