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Caulfield Race 7: Hyland Colours Autumn Stakes 1400m

13/02/2015: If it’s acknowledged that Moonovermanhattan, Bondeiger and Magicool are not serious players in this race as they are being set for longer, and more suitable, races in a few weeks this race essentially becomes a BM74 class race. On that basis the race will be fought out by Hong Kong Captain and Profit Share, as happened three weeks ago at Moonee Valley based on current form, but there are other chances. Hong Kong Captain doesn’t meet Petrology well at the weights but he is an improver and can keep winning often. The Profit Share stable are backing him up within seven days which is not always a winning move but the ease of his win last Saturday decreed that run wasn’t a gut buster. The promising Sarajevo flopped his only run at this distance in the Group 1 Golden Rose, prior to a spell, so forgiveness is needed however he has drawn badly and Sydney horses racing for the first time at Caulfield aren’t always reliable betting conveyances. Chill Party (massive odds), Firehouse Rock and Bascule are definite place chances on their best form lines. Go wide in the quaddie to be safe.

Caulfield Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 17:15, 14/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (7) San Nicasio.
On Pacers (1) Hong Kong Captain, (2) The Ultimatum, (11) Convincible.
Mid Fielders (4) Magicool, (8) Moonovermanhattan, (9) Profit Share, (12) Zebulon, (15) Affirmation.
Get Back (3) Firehouse Rock, (5) Belflyer, (6) Chill Party, (10) Bascule, (13) Bondeigger (14) Sarajevo.
PACE COMMENTS Although not always out and out front runner it looks like San Nicasio has his chance to lead this field based on his run at Flemington three runs ago. There’s a wall of contenders for the on pace positions which means the pace should be solid enough early as those runners move forward to secure a position. This is the usual 1400m scenario at Caulfield in fields of this size. Just the same they will go slightly slower mid race as the field negotiates the turns at the back of the course. Be wary about taking silly odds any of my get back types.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Hong Kong Captain PLUS: Strong win last run longer distance, gets top run off pace, two from three good tracks, improver. A 0
  MINUS: Nil    
Profit Share PLUS: Easy win last weekend, eight from ten in quinella, meets Hong Kong Captain 1.5kg better at weights. B 0.25
  MINUS: Seven day backup query, slight distance query.    
Sarajevo PLUS: Two from five runs, J O'Shea Godolphin stable, strong win last run C 1
  MINUS: Wide barrier, first time track for Sydney horse.    
Zebulon PLUS: Strong first up run last preparation this distance, two forgivable runs prior to spell, improver. D 1.25
  MINUS: Wide barrier first up possible difficult run.    
Affirmation PLUS: One from one track and distance, strong first up behind Java, Petrology, two from four career record. E 1.5
  MINUS: Two from two soft tracks.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Moonovermanhattan, Bondeiger and Magicool (distance), Convincible (beat Samartested who just won weak Adelaide race last week), San Nicasio (disappointing last run).
OUTCLASSED Belflyer, The Ultimatum.
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 14 February 2015
Caulfield 6 Schweppes Rubiton Stakes 1100m
Caulfield 7 Hyland Colours Autumn Stakes 1400m
Caulfield 8 Sportingbet C.F. Orr Stakes 1400m
Caulfield 9 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes 1200m
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