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Caulfield Race 7: Oakleigh Plate 1100m

27/02/2015: The Oakleigh Plate is one of those races that mystifies punters some years and other years you feel you have the race under control. I am fairly confident about the chances of the three year old filly Earthquake who seems very well weighted for a 103 rater carrying only 50.5kg when you consider Bel Sprinter is rated at 108, 2.5 kg higher, yet has to concede Earthquake 7.5 kg. Shamal Wind races best with breaks between runs and she has this factor in her favour as well as a liking for Caulfield. As a bonus for her running style she has drawn wide and shouldn’t get into any traffic out there. It Is Written is a freak at Moonee Valley but with two seconds from three track and distance runs I am not going to dismiss the chances of a horse who has run well at wfa level. His odds are way over his real chance. Flamberge almost beat Chautauqua last start and on that run naturally features here. A Time For Julia has run in the quinella six times at her home track and four quinellas from four first up. Vain Queen, Atmospherical, Fast ‘N’ Rocking, Iconic, Nostradamus, Bel Sprinter and Under The Louvre are all place chances. Can I suggest taking Earthquake and Shamal Wind in the A position and slot the rest in for the other positions in your exotics.

Caulfield Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 17:15, 28/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (6) Eloping, (7) Lord Of The Sky, (8) I'm All The Talk.
On Pacers (3) A Time For Julia, (5) It Is Written, (10) Vain Queen, (11) Earthquake, (17) Flamberge.
Mid Fielders (2) Whittington, (4) Atmospherical, (9) Sistine Demon, (13) General Jackson, (15) Shamal Wind, (14) Nostradamus, (16) Fast 'N' Rocking.
Get Back (1) Iconic, (12) Under The Louvre, (18) Bel Sprinter.
PACE COMMENTS It's a rare Oakleigh Plate when they don't scorch the turf early and this year's edition will be the same as I have eight horses within my leaders and on pacers groups. This means all horses will have their chance and that includes the backmarkers Under The Louvre and Bel Sprinter.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Earthquake PLUS: Brilliantly weighted, soft run off pace, three from three tracks, five from seven good tracks. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Shamal Wind PLUS: Races best with breaks, well weighted, well drawn for running style, likes track and conditions. B 0.75
  MINUS: Gets back.    
It Is Written PLUS: Ten wins fourty four career runs, wfa form, well drawn, two second three runs track and distance. C 1
  MINUS: Nil.    
Flamberge PLUS: Two wins four places five runs track and distance, drawn well racing style, Chautauqua formline. D 1.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
A Time For Julia PLUS: Six quinella runs from eight, 4 from four quinella first up, Moody trained Caulfield. E 2
  MINUS: Better against own sex?    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Lord Of The Sky (I have had enough), Sistine Demon (likes track, wild place chance), I’m All The Talk (zero from three first up at Group 1), Eloping (not on first up run, wild place chance perhaps).
OUTCLASSED General Jackson, Whittington.
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 28 February 2015
Caulfield 8 Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m
Caulfield 6 Peter Young Stakes 1800m
Caulfield 7 Oakleigh Plate 1100m
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