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Caulfield Race 7: P.B. Lawrence Stakes 1400m

14/08/2015: I have a perfect record with Smokin’ Joey as whenever I have selected him (handful of times) I have failed yet here I am testing my luck again! For mine he gets the run of the race, likes the tricky Caulfield track and he won comfortably last start at wfa so why not again? Mourinho won the Group 2 Australia Stakes off 84 days over 1200m and even though off 154 days today he will receive softer sectionals mid field and has to be a major contender. Don’t worry about his Caulfield statistics as two of them were absolute shockers more to do with fitness than track disability. I can appreciate the past ability of Dibayani but off 293 days for a horse aged six with just thirteen race starts reads as a problem horse to me. Excess Knowledge has huge upside and although first up at wfa (usually a big minus for me) I respect his inherent ability and the fact Gai Waterhouse thinks him worthy of the attempt. Petrology has enormous potential but whether he’s a wfa Group 2 horse remains to be seen. His last run indicated he is thereabouts.

Caulfield Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 16:00, 15/08/2015

RACEMAPP.B. Lawrence Stakes 1400m
Front Runners (6) The Cleaner.
On Pacers (1) Mourinho.
Mid Fielders (2) No Tricks, (3) Smokin' Joey, (9) Petrology.
Get Back (4) Big Memory, (5) Taiyoo, (7) Excess Knowledge, (8) Dibayani.
PACE COMMENTS If it’s business as usual The Cleaner will lead and Mourinho will sit second and lead the rest of the field. As both the leader and lone on pacer are first up they could be quite keen early and I have the feeling the pace will quite good thus affording the mid fielders, led by Smokin’ Joey and Petrology their chance. I don’t feel the same about the back markers though.
CHANCESP.B. Lawrence Stakes 1400mOrderMargin
Smokin' Joey PLUS: Four track wins, five distance wins, eight good track wins. A 0
  MINUS: Midfield today but small field helps.    
Mourinho PLUS: Eight good track wins, two from seven first up. B 0.75
  MINUS: First up distance wfa.    
Excess Knowledge PLUS: Gai Waterhouse opinion, two from five first up, four from nine good tracks. C 1.25
  MINUS: First up distance wfa.    
Petrology PLUS: Three from thirteen career, first ever wfa run good last run, can improve. D 2
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 15 August 2015
Caulfield 6 Quezette Stakes 1100m
Caulfield 7 P.B. Lawrence Stakes 1400m
Caulfield 8 Regal Roller Stakes 1200m
Caulfield 9 Australian Defence Force Handicap 1800m
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