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Caulfield Race 7: Sandown Park UK Handicap 1100m

22/04/2016: Once I do the form for a race I look at the prices and I was astounded to see the prices of my ABC selections. Just Got Lucky needed the run against Prussian Vixen last start when off 50 days so I expect, fitness wise, there could be a turnaround but, just the same, the winner did all the work out front. Weights punters will note Prussian Vixen drops 1.5kg while Just Got Lucky drops 3.5kg, a 2kg swing. It's also worth noting two runs ago Just Got Lucky beat Glib, who won recently for the Godolphin stable. A good look at Our Vidia's run last start notes he wobbled a fraction on the home turn but zoomed up to be only inches away from second spot to Petits Filous half way up the running alongside Jalan Jalan who ran a bottler to Miss Promiscuity last start. It's strong form and good enough for this BM78. Glen Boss who won on her two runs ago is back on as a bonus. This trio are all priced in double figures!! Invincible Heart has good form through Silent Sedition four runs ago and I can make excuses for most of his recent flops (buck jumped, outclassed, Sydney) and she can win this first up, even against the males. Fleur Fatale is now with Darren Weir, a huge plus, but she has not raced for just over twelve months and that is the concern. Any pre-post nibbles will give a clue. I just cannot get warmed about Stoker: gee he has had many chances and I am risking Divine Miss Artie simply because his first up win was 1000m and in a maiden 3yo race. In this game you must be strong when challenging well fancied horses. When you are right you are a hero: when wrong a dunce!

Caulfield Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEST 15:55, 23/04/2016

RACEMAPSandown Park UK Handicap 1100m
Front Runners (3) Just Got Lucky, (10) Chapel Road, (13) Prussian Vixen.
On Pacers (5) Nudierudie, (7) Atlantic City, (11) Tango Rock, (14) Our Vidia, (16) Fleur Fatale, (17) Ability.
Mid Fielders (4) Land Of Freedom, (6) Divine Mr Artie, (9) Georgie's Luce, (15) Well Sprung, (18) Equinova.
Get Back (1) Invincible Heart, (2) Stoker, (8) Destiny's Reward, (12) Valorem.
PACE COMMENTS Normally there's a fairly good speed in sprint races over this distance and going on my race map don’t think it is going to be otherwise in this race. They will rocket along fast enough to give even the back markers their chance.
CHANCESSandown Park UK Handicap 1100mOrderMargin
Just Got Lucky PLUS: Distance winner, two wins from three on good tracks, meets Prussian Vixen better at weights, improver. A 0
  MINUS: Class rise balanced by 3.5kg weight drop?    
Prussian Vixen PLUS: Three good track wins from eight runs, three wins at 1200m so distance no issue, leads or sits on pace. B 0.25
  MINUS: Class rise balance out by claim?    
Our Vidia PLUS: Petits Filous form line strong, two wins from four starts at the distance, Jalan Jalan form, track conditions fine. C 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Invincible Heart PLUS: Lightly raced improver who is suited by track condition and distance. D 1
  MINUS: Filly versus males who gets back in a field, first up in tougher grade.    
Fleur Fatale PLUS: Unbeaten, major stable change, improver? E 2
  MINUS: 371 days break concern, watch betting for clues.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 23 April 2016
Caulfield 6 JRA Handicap 1440m
Caulfield 7 Sandown Park UK Handicap 1100m
Caulfield 8 Sheen Group Bel Esprit Stakes 1100m
Caulfield 9 BECK Property Group Plate 2000m
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EXOTICS Sandown Park UK Handicap 1100m
Exacta

A: 2 7 8

B: 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 11 12 14

Trifecta

A: 2 7 8

B: 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 11 12 14

C: 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 11 12 14

First Four

A: 2 7 8

B: 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 11 12 14

C: 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 11 12 14

D: 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 11 12 14

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