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Caulfield Race 7: Sky High Mt. Dandenong Handicap 1800m

29/04/2016: Winners keep winning and why can't Loyalty Man win again? He has the perfect barrier draw for the likely leader or he can sit off the pace if required. He has had a go at the distance but it was on a heavy track and a run before a spell, a sign it was time for a break. Unbreakable belied his odds in a strong field against Bengal Cat and Tarquin. He could not beat the Cat but defeating Tarquin stands him in good stead for this race. Red Alto is still a maiden but he has raced at 25/1 and longer five times in obvious tough races so his record isn't all that bad. One of the runs was a wide run in the VRC Derby where he ran fourth at 100/1. He meets Loyalty Man 3kg better at the weights and being by High Chapparal the extra distance is not going to be an issue. The $21 available will be closer to $14 when they jump: it's overs and I have swooped on the $5.50 for the place. Zandarral beat a weak field first up but his previous campaign indicated distance is his forte and so it should being sired by High Chapparal. His win was the equivalent of carrying 6.5kg over the limit and here he is with just 1 kg over the limit. If Red Alto goes in so does Silver Stratum who finished close up last start when held up early in the straight. With an Irish dam who was sired by a French sire the distance rise seems no issue at all.

Caulfield Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEST 15:55, 30/04/2016

RACEMAPSky High Mt. Dandenong Handicap 1800m
Front Runners Nil
On Pacers (1) Loyalty Man.
Mid Fielders (4) Lightning Bell, (5) Angel Eight, (6) Coller Bay, (7) Manhattan Boss, (8) El Greco, (9) Scandal Sheet, (12) Le Boss.
Get Back (2) Let's Twist, (3) Zandarral, (10) Silver Startum, (11) Fair Isle, (13) Unbreakable, (14) Princess Shimmer, (15) Red Alto..
PACE COMMENTS Here’s another race with no clear front runner however it looks most likely Loyalty Man pops out in front from the coveted inside barrier. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Lightning Bell, Angel Eight and Coller Bay, from barriers 4,5 and 6 respectively, kicking forward but not with a maximum amount of enthusiasm from the jockey. Sometimes pushing mid fielders too hard early is counter productive to their chance of winning. I would be very wary of the designated back markers: they have a tough gig in this race. Make sure the odds are commensurate to risk.
CHANCESSky High Mt. Dandenong Handicap 1800mOrderMargin
Loyalty Man PLUS: Lightly raced improver, three wins on good tracks, distance seems within reach as will get soft run. A 0
  MINUS: Minor distance issue.    
Zandarral PLUS: Breeding all about distance, Darren Weir stable, strong win last start. B 0.25
  MINUS: Gets back in race devoid of pace a concern    
Unbreakable PLUS: Also lightly raced, class rise last start didn't seem an issue as winner is good, dry track suits. C 0.5
  MINUS: Distance slight issue, gets back a fraction.    
Red Alto PLUS: Fourth in VRC Derby off tough run from 800m, breeding ia all about distance, forgive five of his runs at big odds. D 1
  MINUS: Gets back in race devoid of pace a concern.    
Silver Stratum PLUS: Finished near Red Alto last start, another whose breeding is a bonus, lightly raced. E 1.25
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 30 April 2016
Caulfield 6 Australian Seating Systems Handicap 1200m
Caulfield 7 Sky High Mt. Dandenong Handicap 1800m
Caulfield 8 Charter Keck Cramer Plate 1400m
Caulfield 9 L U Simon Builders Handicap 1600m
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EXOTICS Sky High Mt. Dandenong Handicap 1800m
Exacta

A: 1 4 5

B: 1 2 4 5 13

Trifecta

A: 1 4 5

B: 1 2 4 5 13

C: 1 2 4 5 7 12 13

First Four

A: 1 4 5

B: 1 2 4 5 13

C: 1 2 4 5 7 12 13

D: 1 2 4 5 7 12 13

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