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Caulfield Race 7: VOBIS Gold Reef 1600m

17/04/2015: All the statistics point to Fontein Ruby being the A selection without much thought attached. However, although Jurasound isn’t well weighted according to the handicappers ratings forget that a fraction as Fontein Ruby has had seven more starts. There is nothing to suggest Jurasound won’t have a rating close to Fontein Ruby after another seven runs as this is the classic lightly raced improver who can win more races than the four on the board so far. The gap in pre-post odds ($2.05 and $3.70) is too wide in my opinion. Von Classic Hero’s basic form looks average at best but apart from his defeat before a spell he is never far away and his last run, after 67 days,when a tad wide, was strong. His pre post price of $26 is surprising. Setinum has an enormous finishing burst and although a win would be no surprise I am going to risk him a fraction as per the racemap he is going to have to be very good to come from last and win. Place chances to Second Option and Primeiro.

Caulfield Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 15:25, 18/04/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (1) Penryn Pearl, (6) Fontein Ruby.
On Pacers (4) Jurasound, (7) Primeiro, (10) Von Classic Hero.
Mid Fielders (2) Ultimate Doom, (11) Uncle Keithy, (12) War Point.
Get Back (3) Sebrella, (5) Stitch Me Up, (8) Painting, (9) Second Option, (13) Setinum.
PACE COMMENTS Fontein Ruby can either lead or sit off Penryn Pearl early while Jurasound, Primeiro and Von Classic Hero find their spots behind the leading duo. I envisage the pace will disadvantage the mid fielders and backmarkers so be wary, especially with Setinum who faces a task.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Fontein Ruby PLUS: Soft lead or on pace, handicapping special at weights, two from three distance, five career wins. A 0
  MINUS: Filly versus male but way above average to compensate.    
Jurasound PLUS: Four from nine career, one from one distance, three from six good track, lightly raced improver. B 0.5
  MINUS: Not well weighted versus Fontein Ruby only query.    
Von Classic Hero PLUS: One from two distance checked in failure race, lightly raced improver off strong first up run C 2
  MINUS: Not well weighted versus Fontein Ruby, one from six career though two excuse races.    
Setinum PLUS: Two from six career and good tracks. D 2.5
  MINUS: Pace of race disadvantage, first distance attempt, can miss start badly.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY War Point (second up distance off flat first up run).
OUTCLASSED Ultimate Doom, Stitch Me Up, Painting, Uncle Keithy, Sebrella.
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 18 April 2015
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