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Caulfield Race 7: William Hill Moonga Stakes 1400m

15/10/2015: Vashka commands all the favours by having the option to lead or take a sit not to mention he has the required fighting ability to ward off the obvious flying finish from Under The Louvre. The latter is one of those headache horses who wins like a champion one day and the next runs well but just misses. Last start he just missed at Group 1 level and the drop in class here will be a big help. Charlie Boy is another Under The Louvre as the ability is undoubtedly there but he finds it hard to win races. The Boban form line keeps him as a contender and if the pace is on, which I doubt, he is a chance but it’s hard to be confident. Blow me down but Famous Seamus also fits into the same mould as Under The Louvre and Charlie Boy but when he fires he is good. On face value he has miserable distance statistics but be really forgiving as some of the runs haven’t been to his favour and he did run third beaten 0.7 lengths in a Newcastle Newmarket. He is in this simply because the class drop, at the weights, suits and that could be all he needs going on his last run. Worthy Cause is a horse on the up and although he clearly rises in class. Based on his wins, the run in the Bobbie Lewis Quality, when finishing just behind Under The Louvre and Gregers, strongly suggests he is in this race with a big chance and perhaps the classic improver of the event.

Caulfield Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 16:20, 17/10/2015

RACEMAPWilliam Hill Moonga Stakes 1400m
Front Runners (4) Vashka, (7) Worthy Cause.
On Pacers (3) Sterling City, (5) Coronation Shallan, (11) Charlie Boy.
Mid Fielders (2) Setinum, (7) Chivalry, (8) Ulmann, (10) Famous Seamus, (12) Under The Louvre.
Get Back (1) Rock The Sturdy, (9) Kumaon.
PACE COMMENTS Vashka and Worthy Cause should go forward with Sterling City, Coronation Shallan and Charlie Boy just off the pace. As I don't see many on pacers tackling for the lead there shouldn't be too much of a battle early in the race. This means the pace will drop off pretty quickly making life tough for the likes of Under The Louvre, Ulmann and Famous Seamus.
CHANCESWilliam Hill Moonga Stakes 1400mOrderMargin
Vashka PLUS: Two wins from four distance runs, five good track wins from nine starts, can lead. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Under The Louvre PLUS: Track specialist with five quinellas from seven runs, two seconds at the track and distance. B 0.25
  MINUS: Gets back in possible slowly run race, one win from seven distance runs.    
Charlie Boy PLUS: Boban second Group 1 at wfa, three good track wins, class drop helps. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back, one win from six at distance.    
Famous Seamus PLUS: Eight wins on good tracks, drop in class very helpful. D 1.25
  MINUS: Zero from eight distance runs on face value (see comments above), gets back and needs good early pace.    
Worthy Cause PLUS: Three wins from four distance runs, three good track wins, begins well. E 1.75
  MINUS: Class rise based on win record.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 17 October 2015
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