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Caulfield Race 7: William Hill Sprint Series Heat 2 Stakes 1200m

18/09/2015: This is a really interesting race as there are several ways of assessing the race. Eventually I chose Hazard simply because she is the best mare in the race and I have to use that factor as my guide. The win by the mighty mare Catkins last Saturday franks the form from Queensland when Hazard won the Group 2 Dane Ripper. I had to take a chance against Vezalay for two reasons: the seven day back up after a hard run and the actual drop back in distance which could also be a positive. However, both reasons, could mean "zippo" so I kept her for the B selection. Tycoon Tara ran a terrific first up race against the mighty Chautauqua and the drop back to a more sedate own sex race gives her a strong chance in this event. Wawail is unbeaten first up from three attempts however those wins were against weaker company and at 1100m or shorter and the last 100m is a concern. Where the pendulum can swing is that Wawail is a very classy mare and that type overcomes obstacles. Politeness figures as a stronger chance if the rain arrives and Girl Guide, even though a non winner for several runs, is a dead set trier and at the odds has to go in.

Caulfield Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 16:05, 19/09/2015

RACEMAPWilliam Hill Sprint Series Heat 2 Stakes 1200m
Front Runners (3) Lesley's Choice, (4) Wawail, (7) Satya, (10) Vezalay.
On Pacers (11) Griante, (12) Tycoon Tara, (15) Hazard.
Mid Fielders (1) Written Dash, (6) Atlantis Dream, (8) Jessy Belle, (9) Girl Guide.
Get Back (2) Scarlet Billows, (5) Forgeress, (13) Politeness, (14) Miss Steele.
PACE COMMENTS There are some races where the confidence level is high that the pace will solid for all runners and this is one of them. It’s a beautiful spread amongst the fifteen candidates as I have four leaders and three on pacers ensuring the mid fielders and back markers will get their chance.
CHANCESWilliam Hill Sprint Series Heat 2 Stakes 1200mOrderMargin
Hazard PLUS: Three wins from nine track runs, seven good track wins, ten career wins. A 0
  MINUS: Zero wins from seven second up runs, two wins from ten distance starts.    
Vezalay PLUS: Winner at track, just beaten longer distance last start. B 0.25
  MINUS: Seven day back up, drop back in distance.    
Tycoon Tara PLUS: Two wins at track from three runs, five good track wins from ten runs, outclassed first up. C 1
  MINUS: Zero wins from three wet track runs.    
Wawail PLUS: Unbeaten three wins from three starts first up, four wins from seven good track runs. D 1.25
  MINUS: All first up wins at 1100m or less.    
Politeness PLUS: Two wins and a third from four wet track runs, won first up last campaign this track. E 1.75
  MINUS: Gets back and needs pace on.    
Girl Guide PLUS: Three distance wins, has a win and second from four track and distance runs, needed first up run. F 2.25
  MINUS: Eight losses since last win around this level but does run well.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 19 September 2015
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