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Caulfield Race 8: Billie Swan Handicap 1200m

08/01/2016: Kievann is humming along beautifully and receives a terrific run off the likely leader Sandhill Flash. Forget his Caulfield flops because there were excuses for the three runs. He was only scratched last week because of a poor barrier draw. Duke Of Brunswick disappointed last start but perhaps the 27 days away from the track over 1400m was just a fraction too much to overcome. I would have him on top but I am worried about the pace suiting him. Nicoscene is another with ordinary looking Caulfield form (it's also only three runs) but as per Kievann be forgiving. The Sirbible form line is very appealing and at $7 to $8 is good value for the each way punters. Herstory, with a mere 52.5kg to carry and being trained by Peter Moody at her home track, might just surprise first up sitting just off the pace. She too offers good each way value.

Caulfield Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 17:02, 09/01/2016

RACEMAPBillie Swan Handicap 1200m
Front Runners (9) Sandhill Flash.
On Pacers (2) Kievann, (4) Nicoscene, (5) Herstory.
Mid Fielders (1) Mighty Like, (3) Duke Of Brunswick.
Get Back (6) Mister Milton, (8) Taddei Tondo.
PACE COMMENTS This is one of those race maps a racemapper loves because in the first instance it is straight forward in highlighting what is likely to happen early, a crucial form aspect. In the second instance it points towards a risky conveyance that is well fancied in the market. Punters should always be on the lookout for risky conveyances and bet around them. Anyway, Sandhill Flash will lead with Kievann, Nicoscene and Herstory assuming a good position off the lead. I don't see the pace as hectic hence I am a tad worried about the mid fielders and get back types with the likely favourite Duke Of Brunswick my biggest concern.
  Form Comments
CHANCESBillie Swan Handicap 1200mOrderMargin
Kievann PLUS: Six distance wins, handles all track conditions, big odds two of three unplaced track runs, other run top run. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Duke Of Brunswick PLUS: Two wins from four distance runs, needed last run off 24 days at the distance. B 0.5
  MINUS: Seems a wet tracker BUT that's against weaker company, dropping back in distance a minor concern.    
Nicoscene PLUS: Four distance wins, track conditions fine, drop in grade and 2kg claim is all good. C 1
  MINUS: Caulfield track on face value but roughie in one run when close anyway and other runs all fair efforts.    
Herstory PLUS: First up winner, distance and track fine, lightly raced, 1.5 claim a bonus on home track where trainer goes best. D 1.5
  MINUS: Mare first up against males.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 9 January 2016
Caulfield 6 Timothy Rourke Handicap 1400m
Caulfield 7 Ewen Stafford Handicap 1400m
Caulfield 8 Billie Swan Handicap 1200m
Caulfield 9 Swettenham Stud Championship 1600m
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EXOTICS Billie Swan Handicap 1200m
Exacta

A: 6

B: 2 7 9

Trifecta

A: 6

B: 2 7 9

C: 2 3 4 7 9

First Four

A: 6

B: 2 7 9

C: 2 3 4 7 9

D: 1 2 3 4 5 6 9

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