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Caulfield Race 8: Changing Places Real Estate Handicap 1440m

01/05/2015: Winning form is good form and any horse that beats Group 1 winner Trust In A Gust at level weights (that's Red Bomber, who is asked to carry below the minimum weight after a claim at his next run) must go in as the A selection. Alas, if horse race selection was that easy, but tell me why I shouldn't slot him on top? Sistine Demon just has to be held up for two to three hundred metres mid race and then shot away rather than running along like a scalded cat. He hasn't been finishing off his race. Mirage hadn't raced for 385 days prior to his strong effort in the Hareeba Stakes. He had had enough halfway down the running but if he sits in the slipstream set by Sistine Demon he can be a chance, though I must admit the 35 days break concerns me as well as a recent scratching when well fancied. However what's 35 days after his last effort? Hosting is a heart breaker as on his day he is breathtaking but when he flops it all looks so poor. Nevertheless he had a checkered run last start and couldn't really unleash his devastating sprint. I am not sure about the four weeks break: was it planned? Jazz Song beat Sydney Group 1 placed Griante last campaign and she didn't receive the clearest of runs first up. I am expecting a strong effort. Place chances to Gracious Prospect, Pythagorean, and Swift Shadow.

Caulfield Race 8. RaceTime: AEST 16:20, 02/05/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (1) Sistine Demon.
On Pacers (3) Mirage, (4) Swift Shadow, (9) Gracious Prospect, (10) Lord Durante, (11) Pythagorean.
Mid Fielders (5) Freshwater Storm, (7) Jazz Song, (8) Red Bomber, (13) Commanding Time.
Get Back (2) Hosting, (6) Cadillac Mountain, (12) Taddei Tondo.
PACE COMMENTS Sistine Demon just leads and it will probably be by two or three lengths as per usual thus setting a solid pace. The jockeys on the on pacers will be licking their lips hoping for the leader to weaken but they had better judge their runs carefully. I feel the back markers have an uphill task winning this race as the on pacers might just out sprint them considering they had been lobbing behind the leader taking it easy for most of the race.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Red Bomber PLUS: Weight special on last run, two two distance, five from nine good tracks, seven thirteen career. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Mirage PLUS: Good run Mornington off huge break, four from five good tracks. B 0.75
  MINUS: 28 days break off first up run injured or wise idea?    
Jazz Song PLUS: Not ideal run first up, beat Griante Queensland who placed Group 1 Sydney, improver. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Hosting PLUS: One from two track and distance, two from seven distance (trouble last two at distance). D 1.5
  MINUS: Chronic get back type, inside barrier not ideal, goes back to last best chance.    
Sistine Demon PLUS: Leads comfortably, two from six track and distance, four from nine distance, 2 kg claim helps. E 2
  MINUS: Not finishing races off.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Commanding Time (wet tracker, one from six first up), Lord Durante (zero from seven fresh, maybe Warrnambool?), Freshwater Storm (one from seven first up), Taddei Tondo (keeps running on in weaker class).
OUTCLASSED Nil.
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 2 May 2015
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