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Caulfield Race 8: Charter Keck Cramer Plate 1400m

29/04/2016: With Charmed Harmony coming off a 35 day break and the possibility he might take on Sistine Demon early, or at the best cart the field up to that runner, I have decided Enquare sitting off the action, minding her own business, is the stalker with strong claims. She was caught wide when finishing inches behind Sistine Demon and with a 1.5kg weight advantage her chance of winning is genuine. If the 35 days break was on purpose and not around a fitness issue Charmed Harmony has to be second choice as he is such a tenacious bulldog type who can overcome all obstacles without surprising. Sistine Demon has not won for thirteen runs and is at the crossroads after having dropped 9 rating points (4.5kg) since his Group 3 Victoria Handicap win, and that was on a soft track. You will get double figures if you pop him in as he will drift. Longeron is a tough horse to catch but with all sorts of pace issues he can receive a cosy run and be a serious contender. He has been beaten at this course and distance by a lip first up. A deep and forgiving look at the form of Rhythm To Spare shows he runs good races second up without starring as a couple of the runs have been in unsuitable races. He is better at 1600m, with six wins to his credit, but on a dry track and the possibilities race map wise he might just sneak a place at huge odds if the leaders drop out sharply.

Caulfield Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEST 16:30, 30/04/2016

RACEMAPCharter Keck Cramer Plate 1400m
Front Runners (3) Sistine Demon, (10) Charmed Harmony.
On Pacers (4) Rhythm To Spare, (5) Longeron, (6) Enquare, (11) Hi World, (12) Guest Of Honor, (14) Moon Over Manhattan.
Mid Fielders (1) Zebulon, (2) Bradman, (8) Lord Durante.
Get Back (7) Freshwater Storm, (9) Refulgent, (13) Wish Come True.
PACE COMMENTS Wow, what's going to happen here with Sistine Demon and Charmed Harmony racing at their optimum distances at a track where both love to lead? Commonsense suggests the connections of Charmed Harmony, carrying more weight, might just use their brains and take a sit off Sistine Demon. I cannot see any of the on pacers, and that includes front running Longeron (over longer distances usually), doing anything bar slotting into a comfortable spot and watching proceedings. This makes the job of the mid fielders and back markers quite difficult as they will need to be able to make up the ground off those ahead and also get past them. It will be too tough for them. If backing any make sure the odds are worth the risk.
CHANCESCharter Keck Cramer Plate 1400mOrderMargin
Enquare PLUS: Meets Sistine Demon better at the weights, receives perfect sit off hectic pace, distance and track conditions suit. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Charmed Harmony PLUS: Seven distance wins with two at this track, six good track victories, can lead or sit on pace. B 0.5
  MINUS: 35 days break, speed battle involvement?    
Sistine Demon PLUS: Strong first up run, five distance wins from twelve starts, two wins at this track and distance, seven good track wins. C 0.75
  MINUS: Not won for thirteen runs.    
Longeron PLUS: Close second first up this track and distance, gets good run off pace, good track winner and winner at this track. D 1.25
  MINUS: Still has to win first up, more likely set for Queensland races?    
Rhythm To Spare PLUS: 2kg claim assists, several second up runs in unsuitable races. E 2
  MINUS: Abysmal track and distance record on paper but be a fraction forgiving, better at 1600m.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 30 April 2016
Caulfield 6 Australian Seating Systems Handicap 1200m
Caulfield 7 Sky High Mt. Dandenong Handicap 1800m
Caulfield 8 Charter Keck Cramer Plate 1400m
Caulfield 9 L U Simon Builders Handicap 1600m
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EXOTICS Charter Keck Cramer Plate 1400m
Exacta

A: 9

B: 1 3 6 8

Trifecta

A: 9

B: 1 3 6 8

C: 1 2 3 4 6 8 13

First Four

A: 9

B: 1 3 6 8

C: 1 2 3 4 6 8 13

D: 1 2 3 4 6 8 13

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