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Caulfield Race 8: Manfred Stakes 1200m

05/02/2016: If you believe the old racing adage, as I do, that "winners keep winning" you must be aboard Golden Spin even though via the weight ratings he doesn't look well weighted. In all his wins this campaign he has exhibited bulldog like tenacity to win leaving city class horses like Badajoz and Magna Rossa in his wake. Why can't he win again? Ready For Victory needs to really step up this campaign or he is going to become one of those horses showing heaps of ability but not producing the goods. His erratic fourth in the 2015 Golden Slipper at just his second race start behind Vancouver showed his class. Last campaign a third in the Caulfield Guineas again displayed his above average ability and his first up defeat to Gold Symphony was full of merit on perhaps an unfavoured damp track. Gold Symphony has to be in the mix on the Ready For Victory defeat and his definite liking for this track. Perhaps he is not a true Flemington straight horse so forgive the ordinary looking first up run. If Ready For Victory is a chance through his Caulfield Guineas effort and linked to Lizard Island then Bon Aurum, who has beaten Lizard Island, also sneaks in as a chance via that indirect form line. Palentino has form through his defeat of Demonstrate which lines up with the win by Gold Symphony when he finished ahead of Demonstrate in the Group 3 H.D.F. McNeil Stakes. It doesn't stop there as Tulsa lines up with Bon Aurum via the Group 3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Oh boy, this is some race and my head is spinning! Seek top odds whatever you do and tread lightly.

Caulfield Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 17:00, 06/02/2016

RACEMAPManfred Stakes 1200m
Front Runners (2) Top Me Up, (10) Golden Spin.
On Pacers (3) Vostok, (8) Bon Aurum.
Mid Fielders (4) Ready For Victory, (6) Palentino, (11) Tokyo Tycoon, (13) Gold Symphony.
Get Back (5) Tulsa, (7) Sovereign Nation, (9) Puritan, (12) Patch Adams.
PACE COMMENTS A nice solid pace should be the order in this race. I envisage Top Me Up kicking through with Golden Spin sitting on his outside. Parked right behind this duo I expect to see Vostok and Bon Aurum just waiting for their chance to go forward just before the turn. This will give the mid fielders their chance but I have doubts about the back markers.
CHANCESManfred Stakes 1200mOrderMargin
Golden Spin PLUS: Four wins from five race starts, unbeaten at the track and distance, bulldog who fights, unbeaten at distance. A 0
  MINUS: Class rise.    
Ready For Victory PLUS: Top rated by handicapper, finds bad luck but gifted horse, all track conditions suitable. B 0.25
  MINUS: One win from eight but some top and forgivable runs so unfair to judge harshly.    
Gold Symphony PLUS: Two wins from two starts this track, adept on all track conditions, two victories from three distance runs. C 0.75
  MINUS: Below average first up but perhaps Flemington straight a problem as well??    
Bon Aurum PLUS: Two good track wins, distance no concern nor the track, flopped first up last campaign but improved dramatically. D 1
  MINUS: Minor first up concern this distance and class.    
Palentino PLUS: Two wins in just three starts, seems as if distance and track conditions not an issue, Demonstrate form line good. E 1.25
  MINUS: Best run has been on wet track.    
Tulsa PLUS: First up winner, strong efforts in first campaign when pushed into higher class, lightly raced improver. F 1.5
  MINUS: First up in tougher class.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 6 February 2016
Caulfield 6 John Moule Handicap 1400m
Caulfield 7 W.J. Adams Stakes 1000m
Caulfield 8 Manfred Stakes 1200m
Caulfield 9 Thomas North Handicap 1400m
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EXOTICS Manfred Stakes 1200m
Exacta

A: 1 2 4 7

B: 1 2 4 7

Trifecta

A: 1 2 4 7

B: 1 2 4 7

C: 1 2 4 6 7 11

First Four

A: 1 2 4 7

B: 1 2 4 7

C: 1 2 4 6 7 11

D: 1 2 4 6 7 11

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