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Caulfield Race 8: Schweppes Tristarc Stakes 1400m

15/10/2015: I love a mare called Catkins and if I did not tip her and she won I would be beside myself. Yes, she ran a shocker last start but I am trusting the brilliance of C Waller in that he would have spelled her if in any doubt about her future. Her distance statistics look awful but she has won up to 1600m so join her. If fit she will give you everything she can. Most punters would believe Gregers to be just a sprinter but she was beaten 0.7 lengths at Group 3 level over 1600m and has run some top races at this distance, with her last run her best. If she leads without a challenge Catkins watch out! Hazard is under rated (remember she beat Catkins in Queensland) and when fit or when not pushed too hard early she is more than capable at this level. Sabatini bothers me in that I believe the pace might be an issue and she will run on but just miss first prize. In fact, I am worried she will not place. Just the same she is a ripper mare and could easily throw egg on my face by winning. Amicus gets back and with top weight doesn't quite enthuse me but the handicapper has her up there and I must respect that opinion in a set weights and penalties race. It's worth noting she jarred up in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes so be forgiving.

Caulfield Race 8. RaceTime: AEDT 16:55, 17/10/2015

RACEMAPSchweppes Tristarc Stakes 1400m
Front Runners (3) Hazard, (6) Gregers.
On Pacers (7) Tycoon Tara.
Mid Fielders (2) La Passe, (4) Scarlet Billows, (8) Catkins, (10) Amicus, (12) Solicit.
Get Back (1) Slightly Sweet, (5) Girl In Flight, (9) Sabatini, (11) Atlantis Dream, (13) Jessy Belle.
PACE COMMENTS It seems most likely Gregers and Hazard will go for the lead and possibly Tycoon Tara might as well. Regardless I don’t think the pace will be all that solid hence I would be worried about the back markers, especially Sabatini and Jessy Belle. They are good enough to win, by the way, but pace wise they have a big job ahead to win the race.
CHANCESSchweppes Tristarc Stakes 1400mOrderMargin
Catkins PLUS: Distance not an issue, enormous sixteen wins career, ten wins on good tracks, winner here. A 0
  MINUS: Flat effort last start.    
Gregers PLUS: Can lead, terrific run at Group 1 versus males last run, three wins this track, distance not an issue. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Hazard PLUS: Three distance wins, three wins at the track, can lead, worked early last start so forgive the run. C 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Sabatini PLUS: Track specialist with four wins at the track, four good track wins from ten runs, unbeaten second up. D 1
  MINUS: If gets too far back race pace could be an issue.    
Amicus PLUS: Caught wide last run, distance winner, twice second at the track and distance. E 2
  MINUS: Gets back and may need pace solid.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 17 October 2015
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