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Caulfield Race 8: Sportingbet C.F. Orr Stakes 1400m

13/02/2015: Dissident clearly needed the run first up as when the sprint went on from the 600 metre mark he was left flat footed but worked home “nicely” with, undoubtedly, this race firmly in mind. Mourinho is definitely a Moonee Valley specialist but don’t dismiss him too quickly at this track as he has had some excuses here. An improving three year old at wfa is always worth thought and Java fits the bill admirably. The chief handicapper raised him 6.5 kg (13 points) for his last win when he beat Petrology quite comfortably displaying how impressed he was with the run. Spillway had some ordinary luck last preparation and distance changes didn’t help either. His first up run behind Star Rolling last campaign was a ripper so keep him safe here. Entirely Platinum has been thrown into the deep end by the astute Hawkes Team and his statistics show that on one level he is well worth considering here. Petrology is not a horse I have warmed to but I do acknowledge his chance here as an improver based on his strong finish to Java. Happy Trails doesn’t seem to have much in his favour statistically but his class is the tangible that could help him cause a boilover.

Caulfield Race 8. RaceTime: AEDT 17:50, 14/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (4) Star Rolling, (7) Dissident, (13) Java.
On Pacers (3) Mourinho, (6) Entirely Platinum, (15) Beaten Up.
Mid Fielders (8) Mouro, (10) Petrology, (11) Real Love.
Get Back (1) Spillway, (2) Bagman, (5)Aeronautical, (9) Toydini, (12) Sonntag, (14) Happy Trails.
PACE COMMENTS Star Rolling should lead this field with Java coming over to most likely sit outside the leader which has Dissident sitting off the pace in what the harness people call the “one one position”. This equates to sitting one off the fence behind Java as I expect Mourinho to kick through and keep the fence behind the leader. After settling the pace will slacken until about the 500 metre mark where it becomes “game on” and the likes of Dissident and Mourinho put the pressure on the leaders. It will surprise me to see any of my mid fielders or get back horses win this race based on the above scenario.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Dissident PLUS: Two wins four times in quinella distance, needed first up run, two from five second up, on pacer. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Mourinho PLUS: Group 2 winner last start, on pacer, seven good track wins, under rated. B 1.25
  MINUS: Zero wins five track runs.    
Java PLUS: Improving three year old at wfa, four from four good tracks, four from six career runs, improver. C 1.5
  MINUS: Class rise this distance.    
Spillway PLUS: Forgivable runs galore last campaign, top first up run last campaign just beaten to Star Rolling. D 2
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Entirely Platinum PLUS: Four from five distance, four from eleven good tracks, two from five first up, Hawkes Team trained. E 2.5
  MINUS: Class rise first up distance.    
Petrology PLUS: Strong first up, three year old at wfa improver. F 2.75
  MINUS: Gets back, two seconds four runs this track.    
Happy Trails PLUS: Class act, first up Group 1 race, weight scale weight advantage, winner of almost three million. G 3
  MINUS: One from eight first up, one from eight track,    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Toydini (hopeless first up), Bagman (place chance at odds), Beaten Up (place on first up Sydney run), Mouro (better in handicap, 50 days off no help), Sonntag (distance), Star Rolling (place on last campaign), Real Love (into the big league from WA, place).
OUTCLASSED Aeronautical.
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