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Caulfield Race 8: The Cup Club Christmas Stakes 1200m

25/12/2015: This is a really tough affair numbers out of a hat job with no compelling form lines even with the more fancied runners. Opting for Nicoscene who should race much better back a round the corner as opposed to his run down the Flemington straight last time. Nicoscene has a strong record over the 1200m journey and has been placed once in 2 runs here at Caulfield. Has won at Group 2 level and if can reproduce that form will just about win this. Reldas will find the 1200m of this much more to his liking than the 1000m of last time at Sandown. Was a costly commodity for punters last prep when beaten 4 successive runs as short priced favourite, so has to be taken on trust, but nevertheless has strong winning strike rate. Office Bearer has been beaten his last 11 runs but is proven this level and nice effort last time out at Sandown in the City Of Greater Dandenong Stakes, was perhaps a pointer that the run of outs is close to being broken. It Is Written is always a chance in these types of events and will find this task somewhat easier than most events in recent times although must improve on last start unplaced effort at Moonee Valley. Written Up rises in class but looked good charging late when a winner at The Valley last time and should be somewhere around the mark at the finish.

Caulfield Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 16:45, 26/12/2015

RACEMAPThe Cup Club Christmas Stakes 1200m
Front Runners (8) Kirani, (7) Sistine Demon, (3) Sirbible.
On Pacers (11) Mr Backchat, (10) Tudor, (9) Written Up.
Mid Fielders (15) Pago Rock, (5) Office Bearer, (14) Tuscan Sling, (12) It Is Written, (4) Nicoscene.
Get Back (2) Mister Milton, (6) Taddei Tondo, (13) Reldas, (1) General Groove.
PACE COMMENTS Looks plenty of early speed here with the likes of Kirani, Sirbible and Sistine looking for the early lead. Mr Backchat, Tudor and Written will be all up on the pace looking to settle into good trailing positions once the single lead position is settled. Race favourite Reldas is expected to settle well back with other fancies in Office Bearer and Tuscan Sling slightly closer in a mid field position. Pace assessment here is genuine to fast so there should be no disadvantage to the late closers coming from the rear.
CHANCESThe Cup Club Christmas Stakes 1200mOrderMargin
Nicoscene PLUS: Won 4 placed 6 from 15, winner Group 2 level, well drawn, strong record this distance. A 0
  MINUS: Last 3 runs pretty poor.    
Reldas PLUS: Good winning strike rate, goes well this distance, step up to 1200m a plus. B 0.75
  MINUS: Drawn wide, has been costly in the past, unplaced only other run here.    
Office Bearer PLUS: Proven this level, last 2 runs suggest another win is close, drawn well. C 1
  MINUS: Beaten last 11 runs, unplaced all 3 runs this track.    
It Is Written PLUS: Has been close up in much stronger company in career, good record this distance. D 1.5
  MINUS: Only 1 win in 14 this track.    
Written Up PLUS: Strong last start winner at Moonee Valley in weaker grade, goes well this distance. E 3.25
  MINUS: Class rise, unplaced both previous runs here.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 26 December 2015
Caulfield 7 Cape Grim Beef BM78 1800m
Caulfield 8 The Cup Club Christmas Stakes 1200m
Caulfield 9 Swettenham Stud Lord Stakes 1700m
Caulfield 10 Swettenham Stud Championship BM84 1400m
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EXOTICS The Cup Club Christmas Stakes 1200m
Exacta

A: 1 3 4 6

B: 1 3 4 6

Trifecta

A: 1 3 4 6

B: 1 3 4 6 9

C: 1 3 4 6 9

First Four

A: 1 3 4 6

B: 1 3 4 6 9

C: 1 3 4 6 9 10

D: 1 3 4 6 9 10

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