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Caulfield Race 8: The Cup Club T.S. Carlyon Cup 1600m

12/02/2016: As there is some doubt in my mind as to the pace of this race I am going to go out on a limb and select the back marker Amorino. He normally performs quite well first up and flops miserably second up but he didn't really get much of a chance first up when not receiving a clear run in the straight. Essentially I am looking at today's run as first up but with residual fitness as a bonus. I am also mindful of the handicapper's ratings really favouring Amorino by 4.5kg against the likely favourite Burning Front and consequently the juicy $9 available. It goes without saying Burning Front is a real bulldog and he is clearly the danger. I might be stringing a long bow but perhaps 100 metres less will enhance the chances of Sadaqa compared to his good run last start: at $13 he seems value as a saver. Tudor could steal this race or flop miserably. It just depends on how he handles the distance but double figures are also available and that's fair. Whatever way I look at Dance The Stars I see negatives but I also see Damien Oliver is still aboard and in all fairness his first Victorian run this campaign was good. It's his last chance though; he's just too difficult to follow.

Caulfield Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 17:00, 13/02/2016

RACEMAPThe Cup Club T.S. Carlyon Cup 1600m
Front Runners (8) Tudor.
On Pacers (7) Sadaqa, (10) Burning Front.
Mid Fielders (2) No Tricks, (3) Dances On Stars, (4) Good Value.
Get Back (1) Amorino, (5) Pure Karma, (6) Extra Zero, (9) Manndawi, (11) Gallante.
PACE COMMENTS I cannot see why the stable would not lead on Tudor and consequently seek soft sectionals for a majority of the race to help him run the distance. The stables representing Burning Front and Sadaqa, normally front runners, would be committing suicide to take him on therefore they slot in second and third. The pace could be hectic if Tudor over races or it could be quite controlled. Again I am guessing to the point where I am going to not worry about pace. The complexion of the race could change dramatically if Tudor stops quickly.
CHANCESThe Cup Club T.S. Carlyon Cup 1600mOrderMargin
Amorino PLUS: Ten wins from thirty five runs, nine good track wins, unlucky first up to not finish closer. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Burning Front PLUS: On pacer or leads showing adaptability, five good track wins, ten wins in career, fighter. B 0.25
  MINUS: One win from six distance runs.    
Sadaqa PLUS: On pacer or leader, three distance wins, unbeaten track and distance from one attempt, four good track wins. C 0.75
  MINUS: Nil.    
Tudor PLUS: Likely leader, last three runs seems a better horse. D 1.25
  MINUS: Poor win strike rate, yet to place at track from seven runs.    
Dances On Stars PLUS: Sydney runs this campaign passable, Damien Oliver stays on board, trainer doesn't bring horses interstate without thought. E 1.75
  MINUS: Difficult to follow.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 13 February 2016
Caulfield 6 Hyland Colours Autumn Stakes 1400m
Caulfield 7 C.F. Orr Stakes 1400m
Caulfield 8 The Cup Club T.S. Carlyon Cup 1600m
Caulfield 9 Bellmaine Stakes 1200m
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EXOTICS The Cup Club T.S. Carlyon Cup 1600m
Exacta

A: 1 6 9

B: 1 4 6 8 9

Trifecta

A: 1 6 9

B: 1 4 6 8 9

C: 1 4 5 6 7 8 9

First Four

A: 1 6 9

B: 1 4 6 8 9

C: 1 4 5 6 7 8 9

D: 1 4 5 6 7 8 9

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