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Caulfield Race 8: Thousand Guineas 1600m

9/10/2015: This looks a really skinny race to me with three solid chances, if you include Pasadena Girl; see my racemap worry. It was impossible not to be impressed with Badawiya’s win last Saturday because when she kicked, she kicked like a good horse. She will get back but I am prepared to take the chance around the $4 mark or better at the track she is trained on. Miss Gunpowder was powerful in her all the way win in the Thousand Guineas Prelude and being by Pendragon (won the Gloaming Stakes, Norman Robinson Stakes 1800-2000m) I don’t believe distance is an issue and she is an excellent saver. Pasadena Girl is a handicapping special if you blindly follow the handicappers ratings as she is rated at 6kg better than her nearest rival. However, life isn't that easy for the punter and I have pace concerns but just for this run I have her in as a chance.

Caulfield Race 8. RaceTime: AEDT 17:05, 10/10/2015

RACEMAPThousand Guineas 1600m
Front Runners (5) Take Pride, (11) Miss Gunpowder.
On Pacers (1) Payroll, (2) Super Cash, (6) Alaskan Rose.
Mid Fielders (4) Stay With Me, (9) Jameka, (10) Badawiya.
Get Back (3) Sagaronne, (7) Pasadena Girl, (8) Don't Doubt Marley.
PACE COMMENTS I have Take Pride leading without much trouble and Miss Gunpowder either taking a sit a length or so off the pace or eyeballing the leader. The latter isn't usually C Williams style of riding but perhaps he will want to pressure the leader. This has the on pacers going well enough and the mid fielders too but I must admit to being worried about Pasadena Girl's chances. She will be a fair way back early and I want a good price about her around the $5.00 mark as a starting point.
CHANCESThousand Guineas 1600mOrderMargin
Badawiya PLUS: Seven day backup after powerful win, distance no issue, two wins from four runs on good tracks. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back from wide barrier.    
Miss Gunpowder PLUS: Can lead, three wins from four good track runs, breeding suggests distance not a problem. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Pasadena Girl PLUS: Group1 winner, ready third up, weighted to stroll in by the handicapper using ratings. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back, best efforts this level on soft going.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 10 October 2015
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