Caulfield Race 9: BECK Property Group Plate 2000m

23/04/2016: Although she hasn't started for 40 days it is difficult to see past Real Love, especially after the claim for Ben Allen. There is no doubt she failed at 32200m in the Group 2 Adelaide Cup and I suspect she has had an easy time of it down at the Warrnambool beach with a possible trip to Queensland in mind. Survived battled away last start second up and it looked like he needed the run and I am sure he will improve now the distance is close to a range he has won at twice. Now that Doctor Care has risen in distance and is fitter after his terrific effort behind the smart Zahspeed we can expect a really solid run. His main problem is the barrier as from there I have him dropping out to near last. On my race map that's not good. Digitalism is a hard horse to catch but in his last run he finished ahead of Berisha, subsequent winner of the Mornington Cup. It is well worth noting he has won several times off breaks past one month hence the 34 days break will not be a problem at all. Kareeming's form of last spring, when second to Digitalism in the Cranbourne Cup, is quite good for this race now he has shown form again. Golden Mane gets back in the field, which is a distinct disadvantage according to my race map, but I am buoyed by the fact his last start at this track and distance yielded a win carrying 58.5kg. In that run he beat Mr Journeyman, who won the Tatura Cup his next run. The drop to 54kg is very helpful.

Caulfield Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEST 17:10, 23/04/2016

RACEMAP	BECK Property Group Plate 2000m
Front Runners	(3) Araldo Junior.
On Pacers	(5) Kareeming, (9) Faust, (10) Real Love, (12) Survived, (15) Genuine Lad.
Mid Fielders	(2) De Little Engine, (8) Good Value, (11) Digitalism, (13) Tristram's Sun, (14) Black Tomahawk.
Get Back	(1) Fieldmaster, (4) No Song No Supper, (6) Golden Mane, (7) Disclaimer.
PACE COMMENTS	This race looks short on pace as I see Araldo Junior going forward without much trouble if the stable so desires. Survived and Genuine Lad will angle over from their wide barriers and might even try for the lead but that’s no good thing. I cannot see the mid fielders doing anything bar taking it easy early. I would be wary about taking any silly odds about the midfielders and definitely not with the back markers.

CHANCES	BECK Property Group Plate 2000m	Order	Margin
Real Love	PLUS: Distance and good track no problems, won almost one million dollars, 3kg claim really helps, gets good run off pace.	A	0
	MINUS: 40 days break.
Kareeming	PLUS: Distance quite suitable as are the track conditions, second to Digitalism in Cranbourne Cup strong form line.	B	1
	MINUS: Nil.
Digitalism	PLUS: Won three times at the distance from six runs, excels with runs spaced at just over one month.	C	1.25
	MINUS: Might be caught wide mid field, only three good track wins, goes better at Moonee Valley than this track.
Survived	PLUS: Distance achievable third up for new stable, sits on pace with perfect run.	D	1.5
	MINUS: Still might need another run if aiming for Queensland races.
Doctor Care	PLUS: Two distance wins from five runs, handles all track conditions, lightly raced Darren Weir improver always gets a tick.	E	1.75
	MINUS: Race map reads poorly from wide barrier.
Golden Mane	PLUS: Distance winner twice and another at 2200m, six good track wins.	F	2
	MINUS: Gets back and will need luck in the run

Quadrella	Race#	Caulfield 23 April 2016
Caulfield	6	JRA Handicap 1440m
Caulfield	7	Sandown Park UK Handicap 1100m
Caulfield	8	Sheen Group Bel Esprit Stakes 1100m
Caulfield	9	BECK Property Group Plate 2000m
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EXOTICS	BECK Property Group Plate 2000m
Exacta	A: 2 5 12 B: 1 2 5 12 14 16
Trifecta	A: 2 5 12 B: 1 2 5 12 14 16 C: 1 2 5 12 14 16
First Four	A: 2 5 12 B: 1 2 5 12 14 16 C: 1 2 5 12 14 16 D: 1 2 4 5 9 12 14 16
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