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Caulfield Race 9: BMW Caulfield Cup 2400m

15/10/2015: History has shown a good class mare can win a Caulfield Cup. This is why I am selecting Set Square because she ticks all the boxes required: well weighted, well drawn and has strong Group form. Rising Romance was poorly ridden, in my opinion, last year when the jockey booted away far too early allowing Admiral Rakti to storm home in the last fifty metres. Her run in the Turnbull Stakes, when caught wide, was strong and she is a genuine chance to make amends. Mongolian Khan's third to Cox Plate aspirant Criterion was excellent and the only concern I have is about the seven day back up. Hauraki was short of a run when just nutted by Complacent last start when third up and he will improve once again for this race. Of the overseas horses I feel Hokko Brave, first up, will be fresh and keen to run a great race while Fame Game, a really serious Group 1 horse, does have his problems from barrier one. With an ounce of luck he will figure in the finish. Snow Sky has excellent UK form at Group level and if there is a real negative it is that some of his good runs have been in small fields. The tighter Caulfield track and roughness of a typical Caulfield Cup could be an issue for him. If Complacent receives a run slot him in ahead of Hauraki. As usual, these days, a tough race with many chances. Do not accept any less than $7 for Set Square with about one point downwards for the rest of my chances.

Caulfield Race 9. RaceTime: AEDT 17:40, 17/10/2015

RACEMAPBMW Caulfield Cup 2400m
Front Runners (7) Dibyani, (10) Complacent, (16) Set Square, (18) Magnapal.
On Pacers (4) Magic Hurricane, (11) Volkstok'n'barrell.
Mid Fielders (2) Rising Romance, (3) Snow Sky, (5) Trip To Paris, (8) Quest For More, (9) Mongolian Khan, (12) Protectionist, (13) Gust Of Wind, (14) Hauraki.
Get Back (1) Fame Game, (6) Grand Marshall, (13) Gust Of Wind, (15) Magicool, (17) Our Ivanhowe, (19) Hokko Brave, (20) Lucia Valentina, (21) Who Shot Thebarman.
PACE COMMENTS There is seldom an issue with pace in the Caulfield Cup. The run to the winning post is hectic, there is movement down the back and from about the 700 metre mark it is game on with a capital G. Just forget about pace being an issue: the biggest problem for mid fielders and backmarkers is obtaining a trouble free run.
CHANCESBMW Caulfield Cup 2400mOrderMargin
Set Square PLUS: Three from ten career, track winner, three good track wins, terrific barrier draw, well weighted. A 0
  MINUS: Eleventh race start in tough handicap race.    
Rising Romance PLUS: Ridden impatiently last year for second, distance quinella three from three, god track winner. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Mongolian Khan PLUS: Brilliant run last Saturday, unbeaten at two distance runs, three good track wins from eight starts. C 0.5
  MINUS: Unbeaten on wet tracks at four from four starts.    
Hauraki PLUS: Has Mongolian Khan through AJC Derby, three good track wins from seven starts, needed last run. D 0.75
  MINUS: Drawn a fraction wide.    
Hokko Brave PLUS: Winner of five races on good tracks, first up winner, winner of $1.8 million, C Williams rides. E 1.5
  MINUS: Terrible barrier requires him to get back.    
Fame Game PLUS: Winner of five races on good tracks, winner of $2.7 million in only sixteen starts, Group 1 horse. F 1.75
  MINUS: Zero wins from six first up runs.    
Snow Sky PLUS: Four good track wins from ten starts, has won first up, D Oliver choice, genuine Group horse. G 2.25
  MINUS: Inside draw for a horse used to smaller fields,    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 17 October 2015
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