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Caulfield Race 9: Caulfield Guineas 1600m

9/10/2015: Well, racemap and all, I am still tipping Press Statement. Two runs ago he was quite unlucky behind Exosphere and Speaking Fondly and if that isn't A-class form, then what is? However, I am not taking $2.30 to find out how good he is at his first Caulfield run, a track often a graveyard for Sydney horses. My plan will be to try for value through the exotics. Behind Press Statement there is a wall of chances including Ready For Victory (I am starting to worry about him as a genuine racehorse), Dal Cielo (bold front runner), Bon Aurum (winners keep winning), Sovereign Nation (improver), Bassett (bumped when against Press Statement in Queensland), Tarzino (improver) and Tulsa (gets back with huge finish).

Caulfield Race 9. RaceTime: AEDT 17:40, 10/10/2015

RACEMAPCaulfield Guineas 1600m
Front Runners (8) Dal Cielo.
On Pacers (2) Lizard Island, (5) Kentucky Flyer, (9) Bassett, (12) Shards.
Mid Fielders (1) Sovereign Nation, (3) Tarzino, (10) Bon Aurum, (11) Snoopy, (13) Odyssey Moon, (14) Press Statement.
Get Back (4) Ready For Victory, (6) Last Bullet, (7) More Than That, (15) Rageese, (16) Tulsa, (17) Mr Individual.
PACE COMMENTS It certainly looks like Dal Cielo can lead with Bassett, Lizard Island and Shards vying for position just off the pace. Normally I would suggest the pace is going to be an issue but this is the Caulfield Guineas and usually at this level the pressure enters the race a fraction earlier than lesser races thus giving those off the pace a better chance. Press Statement will have to drop back and eventually go wide as I don't see him getting in anywhere early and this is where race maps can alert the punter to dangerous situations.
CHANCESCaulfield Guineas 1600mOrderMargin
Press Statement PLUS: Distance not an issue, Exosphere and Speaking Fondly form line magnificent. A 0
  MINUS: Three wins from four wet track runs.    
Bassett PLUS: Two wins from four track runs, two wins from three runs on good tracks, gets great run off leader. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Bon Aurum PLUS: Two wins from four on good tracks, keeps winning and surprising. C 1
  MINUS: Distance query.    
Tarzino PLUS: Big run last start when wide winning comfortably, distance and track conditions no issue. D 1.25
  MINUS: Gets back and needs pace to be solid.    
Ready For Victory PLUS: Blinkers first time, Group 1 effort in Golden Slipper excellent. E 1.5
  MINUS: One win from six starts.    
Dal Cielo PLUS: Loves good tracks, gets soft lead, NZ Group 1 winner. F 2
  MINUS: Distance query.    
Sovereign Nation PLUS: Lightly raced improver who can handle the distance and track conditions. G 2.25
  MINUS: Tougher grade of event.    
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