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Caulfield Race 9: Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes 1200m

13/02/2015: Girl Guide ticks the most boxes as she is unbeaten first up, loves the distance and track conditions, can sit off the pace and she showed Group 1 ability when finishing ahead of Catkins in the Tristarc Stakes. Solicit failed first up last preparation but that was over 1400m hence forgivable at Group 2 level. At her subsequent starts it looked as if this distance or a soft 1400m race would be more to her liking so forgive those ordinary looking form figures, sort of! Politeness is her own worst enemy as she gets back, gets caught wide yet still rockets home often looking unlucky. Her last two Caulfield runs are perfect examples however leave her out at your own peril because she is good. Griante loves it here and beat Girl Guide fair and square third up last campaign (I know because the win cost me the quaddie) and that’s strong form. At her two fresh runs last campaign she was in all sorts of trouble (very wide, thumps, lame in both forelegs) so don’t drop her from this either. Tycoon Tara ran strongly against the males in a BM 90 and is fitter for the run. It’s difficult to assess how far she will go this campaign but on the last run is a chance.

Caulfield Race 9. RaceTime: AEDT 18:25, 14/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (8) Solicit, (12) Spirits Dance.
On Pacers (3) Girl Guide, (10) Tycoon Tara.
Mid Fielders (4) Bonaria, (5) Griante, (9) Soosa Rama, (11) Precious Gem.
Get Back (1) Sentfromthestars, (2) Scarlet Billows, (6) Politeness, (7) Refer.
PACE COMMENTS Spirits Dance looks the likely leader with Girl Guide and Tycoon Tara just off them early and possibly Solicit will push forward as she can in slightly longer distances. I don’t think the pace is going to hectic as all of the above horses, bar Tycoon Tara, are first up and I cannot imagine the stable would want gut busting runs through going ballistic early. Any sort of “soft” pace early will not suit the mid fielders or get back types so be wary about their chances.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Girl Guide PLUS: Two from two first up, three from five distance, five from nine good tracks in quinella eight times. A 0
  MINUS: Nil    
Solicit PLUS: Two from four first up, struggled at distances late last campaign. B 1.25
  MINUS: Not won for several runs    
Politeness PLUS: Two from three distance, just beaten track 1st up last campaign to Girl Guide. C 1.5
  MINUS: Zero wins from four here, gets well back, two from three soft tracks.    
Griante PLUS: Three from five track, three from nine good tracks, five from fourteen career, beat Girl Guide. D 2
  MINUS: Two from three soft tracks, needed couple of runs last campaign.    
Tycoon Tara PLUS: Top run off 56 days versus males last run, three from five good tracks, on pacer who is fit. E 2.5
  MINUS: Slight class rise.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Bonaria (zero from seven first up), Spirits Dance (yet to place from four first up runs), Precious Gem (two placings first up in weaker company), Scarlet Billows (fit but class rise indicates place at best this stage of career).
OUTCLASSED Soosa Rama, Sentfromthestars, Refer.
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 14 February 2015
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Caulfield 9 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes 1200m
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