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Caulfield Race 9: Mypunter Cup Prelude 2000m

27/02/2015: Call me confident but I only see four strong winning chances with one marginal because it disappointed me last start. I have selected Phantom Brew on top as I thought his win last start was an amazing show of strength as the rider, in my opinion, took a serious chance by leading by many lengths early. Adding to the merit of the run was the 63 days spell! The run by Big Memory first up over 1600m, when beaten less than a length, was a terrific effort and even with 60kg he looks a super chance for a horse who won the Herbert Power handicap and finished 2.8 lengths behind the ill fated Admiral Rakti in the Caulfield Cup. Chester Road was checked early in his last race and then had to change course a couple of times in the straight yet finished two lengths behind Smokin’ Joey. That margin should be halved: it was a great run. He was actually vying for the lead 50 metres after the race finished he was finishing that strongly. Finishing along side him was Escado. It’s worth remembering he was beaten 1.8 lengths in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap behind Trust In A Gust at his previous Caulfield run. Spurtonic disappointed me last start as I thought my place bet was home for all monies as they straightened but he has won three from three at the distance and won his only start at this track and distance. I will give him one more chance. For the placings I will add Index Linked, Extra Zero and Inoshowen.

Caulfield Race 9. RaceTime: AEDT 18:25, 28/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (9) Phantom Brew, (15) Scelto.
On Pacers (8) Spurtonic, (10) Chester Road, (13) Zadon.
Mid Fielders (4) Extra Zero, (5) Hannaford, (6) Big Memory, (7) Bunchloch, (11) Martinvast, (12) Inoshowen.
Get Back (1) Index Linked, (2) Gotta Take Care, (3) Like A Carousel, (14) Subiaso, (16) Escado.
PACE COMMENTS This is fairly straight forward as Phantom Brew and Scelto are renowned front runners and there’s no reason to suggest any of the other jockeys would take them on early. This leaves the perfect situation for the front runners and the on pacers as the pace should be nice and easy (I don’t expect Phantom Brew to be leading by eight lengths again). This worries me for the likes of Big Memory, Extra Zero, Inoshowen and especially chronic get back type Index Linked who will all need to display strong sectionals to win this race.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Phantom Brew PLUS: Enormous win last run off 63 days, two from four track, two from six distance, leads. A 0
  MINUS: Class rise.    
Big Memory PLUS: Also huge effort first up, class drop. B 0.5
  MINUS: Second up zero from four, gets back with 60kg.    
Chester Road PLUS: Most unlucky last run, three from six distance, top WA trainer not here for health reasons. C 0.75
  MINUS: Second up distance after fourty four days.    
Escado PLUS: Group 1 efforts last campaign good for this, strong finish last run. D 1.25
  MINUS: One win twenty runs good tracks, gets back.    
Spurtonic PLUS: One from one track and distance, three from three distance, six from fifteen good tracks. E 1.5
  MINUS: Slightly disappointing last start forgive?    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Gotta Take Care (needs longer, wet, jumps, too), Like A Carousel (first up zero from four), Scelto (place at best at this level), Zadon (improver but big class jump), Martinvast (better over jumps from hereon, 42 days no help).
OUTCLASSED Subiaso, Hannaford, Bunchloch.
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 28 February 2015
Caulfield 8 Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m
Caulfield 6 Peter Young Stakes 1800m
Caulfield 7 Oakleigh Plate 1100m
Caulfield 9 Mypunter Cup Prelude 2000m
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