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Caulfield Race 9: Swettenham Stud Championship 1600m

08/01/2016: If ridden with patience I am confident Sadaqa can give a great sight at the overs around $6 (I have him around $3.50) but I am keen on the word patience. He is no star but for the "weights punters" he reads really well with the 8kg weight drop. What price would Siegestor and Marli Magic be in this race if they dropped 8kg to 46.5kg and 45kg respectively? Star Rolling is my main worry as this is, around this distance, the easiest race he has contested for many starts. Whether he still has a win in him is a question and a half but on his last start run I have to give him a strong chance. Volcanic Ash has the pace of the race against him but on the reverse side he is a lightly raced improver who knows how to win races. He is a smidgen behind Star Rolling in this race map, but I could be way out. There's also the distance doubt. The rise from 1400m to 1600m has caught out many horses in the past at their first attempt. I am being precious, I know, but we must ascertain all the risks on favourites before a race. On pure form Bass Strait is a special taking a line through Delicacy (what a tragedy about her: big loss to racing) but gee I find it hard to like him at $4.50 thinking he should be closer to $8. He has run some great races and some absolute shockers. If he costs me the quaddie so be it. My roughie of the race is Itsahymn. I would be surprised to see him win but at $7 each way appeals.

Caulfield Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 17:32, 09/01/2016

RACEMAPSwettenham Stud Championship 1600m
Front Runners (5) Sadaqa, (6) British General.
On Pacers (1) Commanding Time, (2) Star Rolling.
Mid Fielders (7) Bass Strait, (9) Volcanic Ash.
Get Back (3) Itsahymn, (4) Fast And Free, (8) Beliveau.
PACE COMMENTS Who is going to lead: British General or Sadaqa? It should be one of the two, however, on their day Star Rolling and Commanding Time could take up the running, too. If one of them tears away the pace will be solid. If it is a jog early it will be a sprint home. In the latter scenario Volcanic Ash will suffer as from his wide barrier I cannot imagine him going forward and risk being caught wide. A tricky little race, map wise.
CHANCESSwettenham Stud Championship 1600mOrderMargin
Sadaqa PLUS: Distance and track conditions suitable, can lead or sit on pace, drops a massive 8kg on last run after very handy claim. A 0
  MINUS: First track run (amazing) of minor concern.    
Star Rolling PLUS: Class drop from last run, easiest race he has tackled for a long time, distance and track conditions fine, claim helps. B 0.75
  MINUS: Long time since a win.    
Volcanic Ash PLUS: Add bonus if Duke Of Brunswick wins earlier race, unbeaten at track from three runs, four good track wins. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back in possibly slowly run race, distance query.    
Bass Strait PLUS: Massive run to champion mare Delicacy, big trip here, easiest race he has seen for a while also, winner this track. D 1.5
  MINUS: Has many convictions, one track win from nine runs, winner of only four races but is often set a tough task.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 9 January 2016
Caulfield 6 Timothy Rourke Handicap 1400m
Caulfield 7 Ewen Stafford Handicap 1400m
Caulfield 8 Billie Swan Handicap 1200m
Caulfield 9 Swettenham Stud Championship 1600m
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EXOTICS Swettenham Stud Championship 1600m
Exacta

A: 7

B: 1 2 8

Trifecta

A: 7

B: 1 2 8

C: 1 2 3 4 5 8

First Four

A: 7

B: 1 2 8

C: 1 2 3 4 5 8

D: 1 2 3 4 5 8

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