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Caulfield Race 9: Thomas North Handicap 1400m

05/02/2016: There's nothing between Fast Approaching and Boundary based on their recent encounter with the weights favouring Boundary by two kilograms for a neck defeat. Most often I am in the camp that suggests A will beat B again regardless of weight shifts thus I am selecting Fast Approaching to again be the victor. Her track statistics are highly impressive being unbeaten from three runs at the track and distance. Boundary has only won three races from eighteen starts whereas Fast Approaching has won five from twelve starts, with more to come. Marli Magic is no star but her ability to lead and last start second to Siegestor, who ran a great race to the highly promising Pemberley last Saturday, shows she is certainly a chance in the race. My main worry is the five weeks break. She has won off twenty six days at Cranbourne this time last year in a weaker race but has improved as a racehorse since. If the break was planned she will be there at the finish: if not she will drop out. Whistle Baby is the classic, painful mid fielder/back marker who has massive ability but whose victories are determined by the early pace needing to be solid. The same will occur here. I have studied her ordinary Caulfield form and I find excuses (wet track, spelled, month break, first up in stronger class) for five of her seven runs so be forgiving if you are worried.

Caulfield Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 17:30, 06/02/2016

RACEMAPThomas North Handicap 1400m
Front Runners (6) Nouvelle Again, (9) Written, (10) Marli Magic.
On Pacers (4) Boundary, (5) Fast Approaching, (11) Pindan Pearl.
Mid Fielders (1) Mrs President, (3) Blendwell, (7) Whistle Baby, (8) Herstory.
Get Back (2) Secret Toy Bizness.
PACE COMMENTS Marli Magic will most likely lead on her own however Written and Nouvelle Again will be right behind her at worst. I expect Fast Approach to be running fourth or thereabouts just prior to the home turn and perhaps Pindan Pearl going forward as well. I have Boundary as an on pacer but she can miss the kick at times. Take on the back markers on as I feel the pace will cause them problems.
CHANCESThomas North Handicap 1400mOrderMargin
Fast Approaching PLUS: Brilliant three from three at the track and distance, four good track wins, sits on pace, all looks good. A 0
  MINUS: Meets Boundary 2kg worse for neck defeat.    
Boundary PLUS: Weight advantage over Fast Approach, twice winner at the distance and handles a good track. B 0.25
  MINUS: Three wins from eighteen starts not that flash.    
Marli Magic PLUS: Likely leader, formline through Siegestor good, four good track wins, 2kg claim helps. C 1.25
  MINUS: Five weeks break.    
Whistle Baby PLUS: Three distance wins and six on good tracks, forgive most of flops at Caulfield. D 1.5
  MINUS: Needs solid pace.    
Quadrella Race# Caulfield 6 February 2016
Caulfield 6 John Moule Handicap 1400m
Caulfield 7 W.J. Adams Stakes 1000m
Caulfield 8 Manfred Stakes 1200m
Caulfield 9 Thomas North Handicap 1400m
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EXOTICS Thomas North Handicap 1400m
Exacta

A: 3 4 8

B: 1 3 4 8

Trifecta

A: 3 4 8

B: 1 3 4 8

C: 1 3 4 7 8 10

First Four

A: 3 4 8

B: 1 3 4 8

C: 1 3 4 7 8 10

D: 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 10

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