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Doomben Race 6: BRC Sires Produce Stakes 1350m

22/05/2015: With the increased distance and subtle class rises not to mention a likely damp track makes this race fraught with danger. Wicked Intent goes on top simply because I feel he won’t have a massive problem getting to the outside of Zara Bay, my likely leader and he has won his last two soft track runs. His run last start was tip top as he had to work and was first up. Blueberry Hill should have the measure of Pepperano on their last run and to a lesser extent Counterattack. Payroll is in the mix simply because of the better draw, even though he is a mid fielder, and I am worried about them but he is an improver worth slotting in. Place chances to In His Stride, Bring A Secret, Look To The Stars and Zara Bay.

Doomben Race 6. RaceTime: AEST 14:37, 23/05/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (5) Zara Bay, (14) Wicked Intent.
On Pacers (7) In His Stride, (8) Shadow Lawn.
Mid Fielders (1) Bring A Secret, (3) Look To The Stars, (4) Payroll, (6) Counterattack, (10) Blueberry Hill, (13) Pepperano.
Get Back (2) Star Of Night, (9) Princess Charm, (11) Typing, (12) Cylinder Beach, (15) Major Consul, (16) Single Gaze.
PACE COMMENTS Considering Wicked Intent’s rider was determined to go forward last start from a wide barrier I have to assume the same tactics will apply. Zara Bay, based on one career start, should lead over the longer distance. With only two on pacers as challengers for the lead I suspect the pace in this race will not be hectic thus making it more difficult than usual for the mid fielders and backmarkers. Risk them by demanding a fair price.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Wicked Intent PLUS: Last two wins soft going, two from three track, used up early last run so improves. A 0
  MINUS: Wide barrier minimal issue, distance query.    
Blueberry Hill PLUS: Wide from 800m last run, two from two track, two from two in wet. B 0.5
  MINUS: Midfielder drawn fraction wide.    
Payroll PLUS: Lightly raced improver, most unlucky Group 3 Adelaide. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back, query in wet, distance query.    
Counterattack PLUS: Handles wet, improver, C Waller H Bowman combination. D 1.25
  MINUS: Distance query.    
Pepperano PLUS: One from two track, strong run to Wicked Intent Blueberry Hill. E 2
  MINUS: Distance query, wide barrier, wet form unknown.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Single Gaze ( has too much ground to make up from last run).
OUTCLASSED Major Consul, Cylinder Beach, Star Of Night, Stella Dawn, Princess Charm.
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