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Doomben Race 6: Lord Mayor's Cup 1615m

27/05/2016: I'm loathe to tip backmarkers in big fields but Amovatio looks to have recaptured career best form and comes off a strong Group 3 run at Hawkesbury 2 runs back and a narrow defeat at Listed level at Scone last run both over this distance. This Waller trained gelding is a three time winner this distance and will no doubt have to gun them all down surging from the rear late. Just needs clear sailing and a bit of luck to be an undeniable winning chance here. Mighty Lucky has fared much better at the barriers this time but is another who will get back and need the same breaks as Amovatio. Ran 6th last time but was only beaten just over half a length and although yet to win at the mile has won up to 2000m and can easily turn the tables on a narrow defeat by Amovatio 2 runs back. Worthy Cause has won up to 1800m and will be looking to break a 7 run losing streak by contesting this. Has the advantage of tactical speed and should settle well up on the pace. Will give backers a good sight. Hopfgarten has a good record here and is proven this level in the past. Draws well and rates each way in a very open affair. Jumbo Prince has won 3 from 6 at this distance and races well this track, has been placed at Group 1 level and if can overcome a wide draw is another with winning credentials. Pajaro was a shock winner last time out and has to be taken on trust, does go well this distance and if can reproduce last effort will be right in this.

Doomben Race 6. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEST 15:21, 28/05/2016

RACEMAPLord Mayor's Cup 1615m
Front Runners (1) Brave Ali, (10) Court's Star.
On Pacers (3) Kool Kompany, (9) Worthy Cause.
Mid Fielders (2) Bodega Negra, (5) Hopfgarten, (7) Lordag, (13) Peace Force, (15) Jumbo Prince.
Get Back (4) Akavoroun, (6) Mighty Lucky, (8) Amovatio, (11) Malice, (12) Pajaro, (14) Rock Sturdy.
PACE COMMENTS Here's a race full of concern for the mid fielders and back markers as I only have Brave Ali and Court's Star as the leaders, with Brave Ali the most likely. I expect Worthy Cause and Kool Company to go forward and basically that’s about it for horses near the lead. Just be really wary about the odds you are prepared to accept about those back in the field.
CHANCESLord Mayor's Cup 1615mOrderMargin
Amovatio PLUS: Has hit best form last 2 runs, goes well this distance, proven this level. A 0
  MINUS: Backmarker who will get a long way back.    
Mighty Lucky PLUS: Proven this level, last 2 runs very good, draws much better this week. B 0.5
  MINUS: Yet to win in 6 runs this distance.    
Worthy Cause PLUS: Goes well this track, should race up on the speed, winner up to 1800m. C 1.25
  MINUS: Rises in class.    
Hopfgarten PLUS: Goes well this track, goes well this distance, well drawn. D 2
  MINUS: Rises in class.    
Jumbo Prince PLUS: Good strike rates, goes well this track, won 3 from 6 at distance. E 2.25
  MINUS: Drawn wide.    
Pajaro PLUS: Goes well this distance, beat good field at Scone last time. F 3.5
  MINUS: Rises in class, form erratic of late.    
Quadrella Race# Doomben 28 May 2016
Doomben 5 Mitavite BRC Sires' Produce Stakes 1350m
Doomben 6 Lord Mayor's Cup 1615m
Doomben 7 James Boag's Doomben 10000 1350m
Doomben 8 Mullins Lawyers Grand Prix Stakes 2200m
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EXOTICS Lord Mayor's Cup 1615m
Exacta

A: 1 3 4 6

B: 1 3 4 6

Trifecta

A: 1 3 4 6 7

B: 1 3 4 6 7

C: 1 3 4 6 7

First Four

A: 1 4 6

B: 1 3 4 6

C: 1 3 4 6 7 9

D: 1 3 4 6 7 9

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