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Doomben Race 7: Doomben Cup 2000m

08/05/2015: Several of the usual suspects are entered (Green Moon, Foreteller, Moriarty, Hawkspur) however I am selecting the newcomer to this level in Pornichet. His win in the Toowoomba Cup was an excellent pipe opener for this race as he carried the 60.5kg with ease and could have won with 62.5kg. There will be some argument he had enough on the line, which is true, but he had jumped from 1600m (top Doncaster run) to 2150m on a soft track, with the big weight. He loves the wet and looks one of the bets of the day. Leebaz has turned the corner this campaign and will be the hardest to beat, especially if left to lead alone. Weary seemed to have a bit of a set back as he had a 28 days break before his strong All Aged Stakes run and his liking for the wet has him as a chance. Although huge odds do not dismiss Banca Mo as he loves the wet. I’m Imposing has really stepped up to the plate in recent runs and is another who likes it wet. His get back style is a concern at this level, however. What do we do with Silent Achiever? One more chance because of the wet: that’s what we will do. Place chances to Foreteller, Hawkspur, Epingle and Gypsy Diamond.

Doomben Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 15:27, 09/05/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (1) Gypsy Diamond, (4) Pornichet, (11) Leebaz.
On Pacers (7) Banca Mo, (12) Epingle, (13) Hopfgarten.
Mid Fielders (6) I'm Imposing, (8) Weary, (15) Addictive Habit.
Get Back (2) Hawkspur, (3) Escado, (5) Moriarty, (9) Foreteller, (10) Silent Achiever, (14) Green Moon.
PACE COMMENTS It's going to be a bit of cat and mouse out in front early depending on how keen the Hawkes and Waterhouse stable are to lead on their respective runners Leebaz and Pornichet. Even though I have Gypsy Diamond as front runner if C Williams drop back I wouldn't be surprised. Either way I don't think the pace is going to be hectic hence I am suggesting don't get too hooked on the mid fielders and get back types. I believe they have a tough job ahead of them.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Pornichet PLUS: Loves wet, leader or on pacer, strong chance. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Leebaz PLUS: Seven from seventeen career, likes it wet, can lead or sit on pace. B 1
  MINUS: Nil.    
I'm Imposing PLUS: Excellent off 35 days last run, doesn't mind the wet, C Waller trained. C 2
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Silent Achiever PLUS: Ten from thirty five career, won over three million, three from seven in wet. D 2.25
  MINUS: Struggling, perhaps breeding barn, last chance due to wet track.    
Weary PLUS: Excellent run last start, C Waller trained, likes it wet, good odds. E 3
  MINUS: Slight query this level and distance.    
Banca Mo PLUS: Mudlark won seven from fifteen with twelve quinellas in wet. F 3.25
  MINUS: Class rise, six weeks break fitness concern.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Green Moon (zero from five wet), Moriarty (zero from nine wet), Hopfgarten (wfa risk, Pornichet should beat home).
OUTCLASSED Escado, Addictive Habit.
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