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Flemington Race 5: Antler Luggage BM96 1600m

6/11/2015: Last year's Sandown Guineas winner Petrology meets the weakest field he has encountered for some time but has to be taken on trust. Petrology has been beaten in all 7 subsequent starts since that win being placed twice at Group 3 level the other runs all at Group 1 level bar 1 Group 2 run. Ran a shocker last time when last of 18 at Caulfield but has trialed well since. Winner this track and winner this distance. If can recapture best will be too good for these. Zebrinz is yet to win past BM 64 level but has run some nice races recently in better grade than this. Zebrinz is a dual winner this distance and rates as well as most in this open affair. Inspector has run some races in town including a very good Group 3 4th to Smokin' Joey. Easy winner over tidy field at Mornington last time and can trouble these with a repeat of that performance. Freshwater Storm beat city class field at Ballarat two runs back with Prince Of Penzance in his wake over this distance. Has to overcome an awkward draw but always a chance in these types of events. Lord Athenaeum beat a tidy field in weaker event at Geelong last time and will be looking to complete a winning hat trick in this. If can handle class rise rates a definite each way chance.

Flemington Race 5. Track Condition: SOFT (5). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 15:00, 07/11/2015

RACEMAPAntler Luggage BM96 1600m
Front Runners (12) King's Dance.
On Pacers (1) Elmantosh.
Mid Fielders (3) Inspector, (10) Prix D'or, (11) Zebrinz, (4) Petrology, (13) Streets Away, (5) Defiant Angel, (7) Eximius,
Get Back (2) Trade Commissioner, (6) Rhythm To Spare, (9) Setinum, (14) Freshwater Storm, (15) Harada Bay.
PACE COMMENTS Only looks two runners here with regular early tactical speed with King's Dance expected to push on from gate 12 and take up the running with Elmanto from the inside gate to settle on his back, Again a host of mid field runners here, some, who may find themselves a lot closer in the run than usual because of the absence of speed numbers. Similarly, a host of backmarkers and yet again as has been the case in the previous races no tempo favours for this lot. Overall pace assessment is moderate.
CHANCESAntler Luggage BM96 1600mOrderMargin
Petrology PLUS: Winner Grp 2 level, winner this track, winner this distance. A 0
  MINUS: Shocking last run, take on trust.    
Zebrinz PLUS: Dual winner this distance, not much luck in some recent runs. B 1
  MINUS: Unplaced all 5 runs this prep, unplaced all 4 this track.    
Inspector PLUS: Winner only run this distance, well drawn, easy last start winner at provincials. C 1.5
  MINUS: Much harder task this field.    
Freshwater Storm PLUS: Good win city class field Ballarat 2 runs back, dual winner this distance. D 1.75
  MINUS: Drawn very wide.    
Lord Athenaeum PLUS: Winner last two at provincials, good record this distance. E 2.5
  MINUS: Rises in class.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 7 November 2015
Flemington 2 Starlight Children Foundation 2000m
Flemington 3 Queen's Cup 2600m
Flemington 4 Hilton Hotels & Resorts Stakes 1400m
Flemington 5 Antler Luggage BM96 1600m
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