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Flemington Race 5: Hugo Throssell VC Handicap 1400m

24/04/2015: The first up effort by We’ve Got This was strong enough to suggest he can win second up. His only distance run was prior to a spell, which often are forgive runs, but he still finished 1.7 lengths from the winner after covering ground on the home turn. The race map suggests he has his chance however I am a bit shocked at the short price. I would be seeking close to $4 before I became interested as a win bet. Basically, all my main chances are lightly raced improvers and from run to run anything can happen and when you add a slight distance query here and there you realise this is a race where going wide in the quadrella might pay off quite well. Place chances to Bullpit, Jabali, Secret Blend, San Amaro, Kapset, Melonian and Jacoman shows this field is open for a bookies result because even though I have them listed as place chances a win would not surprise.

Flemington Race 5. RaceTime: AEST 15:25, 25/04/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (2) Rock Spur, (9) Secret Blend, (11) Jacoman, (17) Bullpit.
On Pacers (3) Jabali, (4) Veuvelicious, (10) San Amaro, (13) Kapset, (20) Club Star.
Mid Fielders (1) Melanion, (5) We've Got This, (6) Vuelta, (12) Coram, (16) Mihany, (19) Diablo.
Get Back (7) Redentes Edge, (8) Ferro Nero.
PACE COMMENTS With plenty of action from out wide by the front runners and on pacers I see the pace as being quite genuine thus affording most runners their chance, pace wise, if good enough.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
We've Got This PLUS: Lightly raced improver, first up run strong condition gave out. A 0
  MINUS: Only distance run beaten 1.7 lengths before spell, inconclusive effort.    
Vuelta PLUS: Three from quinella distance, two four track and distance. B 0.5
  MINUS: Mid fielder needing run.    
Coram PLUS: Easy last start winner, distance winner. C 0.75
  MINUS: Zero from twelve good tracks.    
Duibio PLUS: Two four career, two three good tracks, one one distance. D 1
  MINUS: First up distance, both wins third and fourth up.    
Club Star PLUS: Wide first up run total forgive, two two distance quinella, lightly raced improver. E 1.5
  MINUS: Horror draw for on pacer going forward early needs luck    
Relaunch PLUS: C Williams aboard again, checked at start first up, huge run last preparation before spell. F 2
  MINUS: Only win in maiden.    
Rock Spur PLUS: Lightly raced improver, fraction wide first up when close to Coram. G 2.25
  MINUS: Only win in maiden.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Tan Tat Diamond (gets back, slow out), Veuvelicious (seems to have zest going on last campaign).
OUTCLASSED Mihany, Redentes Edge, Ferro Nero.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 25 April 2015
Flemington 5 Hugo Throssell VC Handicap 1400m
Flemington 6 VRC St Leger 2800m
Flemington 7 Peter Armytage Handicap 1700m
Flemington 8 Auckland Racing Club Trophy 1200m
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