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Flemington Race 5: Lexus Stakes 2500m

30/10/2015: This is a really tough finish to the early Quaddie and we'll opt for last start Randwick winner Ruling Dynasty as top selection. Ruling Dynasty maps for a perfect trailing run from gate 1 and his tough grinding win last time points to the extra 100m of this event being in his favour, subsequent Bendigo Cup winner The Offer finished 4th behind him in that last win. Excess Knowledge was good behind Melbourne Cup chance Amralah last time when runner up and may be better suited by the more expansive Flemington track. Recent form suggests a win is close and this maybe it. Irish runner Elhaame is the x factor and draws well for his known racing patterns, all form to date have been in handicaps, so could be tested by Group company, having said that, this is not a strong Group 3 race. Havana Cooler was good with his 3rd in the Group 1 Metropolitan and is working nicely towards his maiden win in this country, does get back but watch for him closing late. Chance To Dance beat subsequent Moonee Valley Cup winner The United States 3 runs back then disappointed in 2 Sydney runs, may go better back to Melbourne way of racing.

Flemington Race 5. RaceTime: AEDT 14:25, 31/10/2015

RACEMAPLexus Stakes 2500m
Front Runners (5) Bohemian Lily.
On Pacers (4) Elhaame, (13) Manalapan.
Mid Fielders (8) Zanteca, (2) High Midnight,(1) Ruling Dynasty, (10) Junoob, (9) Excess Knowledge, (11) Chance To Dance, (7) Thunder Lady.
Get Back (12) Hawkspur, (3) Havana Cooler, (6) Ethiopia.
PACE COMMENTS In a race devoid of real top end speed, Bohemian Lily should find herself in front per courtesy of a good draw although not a natural leader. On paper, International runners Elhaam and Manalapan are the only other two to look to have any consistent early tactical speed. Early market leader Havana Cooler although drawn well is expected to drift back and settle in a rearward position. Ruling Dynasty draws the inside alley and although listed here as mid field did race a lot closer last time when winning, so no surprise if he's right up on the pace again. Expected tempo here is moderate to genuine.
CHANCESLexus Stakes 2500mOrderMargin
Ruling Dynasty PLUS: Tough winner at Randwick in the TAB Rewards BM80 last time, drawn well, won 4 placed 2 from 11. A 0
  MINUS: Class rise.    
Excess Knowledge PLUS: Runner up behind smart one last time, looks better suited to this track, close to a win. B 0.75
  MINUS: Yet to win in 5 Melbourne runs.    
Elhaame PLUS: Won 6 placed 7 from 20, winner last two runs in Northern Hemisphere. C 1.25
  MINUS: All wins to date have been in handicaps.    
Havana Cooler PLUS: Drops in grade, good effort last time 3rd in Metropolitan. D 2
  MINUS: Gets back, last start 3rd was first placing in 4 runs this country.    
Chance To Dance PLUS: Beat Moonee Valley Cup winner 3 runs back, better suited back in Melbourne. E 3.25
  MINUS: Only average last 2 Sydney runs.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 31 October 2015
Flemington 2 Mumm Wakeful Stakes 2000m
Flemington 3 Guvera Stakes 1400m
Flemington 4 Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m
Flemington 5 Lexus Stakes 2500m
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