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Flemington Race 6: C S Hayes Stakes 1400m

19/02/2015: In a tough race I have selected the Flemington specialist Merion who is unbeaten at the track and distance. His first up run was strong enough to suggest he’s back as a force in the autumn and adding his unbeaten second up record to his track statistics makes him an appealing bet. Lucky Liberty is going from strength to strength and his last run, even though in weaker company, was a ripper as he was wide all the way yet still won. How can you knock that sort of effort? The value bet is Better Land because he only has to be within a length of his runs behind Scissor Kick and Panzer Division last campaign to be declared the winner however I have to be a tad careful on his first up run. Don’t leave him out, though. Disposition was just beaten by C Waller trained Moriarty in the Group 1 wfa Kingston Town Stakes in Perth. Any sort of return to that form line sees him as a top chance in three year old company. Kermedec ran a top race first up behind Scissor Kick when slow out early but ran on strongly out wide late. He has been sent to Melbourne off the first up run which is a very positive stable move. Chances are given to San Nicasio (soft lead?), Stratum Star, a genuine trier and Chivalry (just once more but I am wavering).

Flemington Race 6. RaceTime: AEDT 15:55, 21/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (13) San Nicasio.
On Pacers (3) Better Land, (4) Disposition.
Mid Fielders (2) Kermadec, (1) Bascule, (7) Orient Line, (9) Merion, (11) Stratum Star, (12) Lucky Liberty.
Get Back (5) Testashadow, (6) Wandjina, (8) Chivalry, (10) Hauraki, (14) Minnesinger.
PACE COMMENTS No reason to suggest San Nicasio won’t lead again with Disposition and Better Land likely to slot in off the pace. It’s a real log jam behind this trio with perhaps Merion go forward even though I have him listed as a mid fielder. I would be worried if I was backing a back marker as for a start I don’t think the pace will be all that flash plus they will have a wall of horses ahead of them upon straightening. San Nicasio should get a soft lead so is advantaged but he has the issue of the distance. Better Land, at good odds, seems well suited via this racemap.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Merion PLUS: Good first up, two from track and distance, two from two second up. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Lucky Liberty PLUS: Unbeaten improver three from three, wide last run top effort, unbeaten good three from three. B 0.5
  MINUS: Class rise to special weights race.    
Better Land PLUS: Enormous Scissor Kick form line at only second and third race starts, forgive last two. C 0.75
  MINUS: Trained for Australian Guineas one run short?    
Disposition PLUS: Moriarty form line, unbeaten first up second up, six time quinella good tracks, race maps well. D 1.25
  MINUS: First up this level minor query.    
Kermadec PLUS: Track winner Group 3 beating Stratum Star, first up run strong to Scissor Kick, C Waller trained. E 2
  MINUS: Nil.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Testashadow (query this level), Wandjina (one win ten runs, over rated?), Bascule (class rise, place perhaps), Orient Line and Hauraki (place on first up runs), Minniesinger (class rise hard but unbeaten, another place chance).
OUTCLASSED Nil.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 21 February 2015
Flemington 6 C S Hayes Stakes 1400m
Flemington 7 Lightning Stakes 1000m
Flemington 8 Tab.Com.Au BM96 1200m
Flemington 9 Flemington Handicap BM84 1600m
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