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Flemington Race 6: CS Hayes Stakes 1400m

19/02/2016: I know Ready For Victory has class but it's becoming difficult to keep making excuses for his defeats. Admittedly several of his defeats have been excellent Group 1 efforts. This has to be his race going on his first up run when he was luckless when needing a split. His finish, when clear, suggests he is on target. Bon Aurum never saw daylight first up and with a clear run he will be in the finish. River Wild is up in class but I backed him last start and he never gave an inch with 61kg and if he receives a soft lead he may well overcome the obvious class rise. A damp track is a clear bonus. Vostok simply need the run first up and this lightly raced improver is a definite hope. I am slotting in Top Me Up due to his two good runs around Ready For Victory. He had a soft first up win in a Benchmark 70 and ran well when thrown into the deep end of the pool when running in the Group 3 Manfred Stakes.

Flemington Race 6. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 15:25, 20/02/2016

RACEMAPCS Hayes Stakes 1400m
Front Runners (1) River Wild.
On Pacers (4) Lizard Island, (8) Vostok, (10) Top Me Up.
Mid Fielders (3) Gold Symphony, (7) Ready For Victory, (9) Bon Aurum.
Get Back (2) Patch Adams, (5) Palentino, (6) Sovereign Edition, (11) Tivaci, (12) Tulsa.
PACE COMMENTS In the quite common racing style for Gai Waterhouse runners I expect River Wild to take full advantage of the inside barrier. It will be a toss up between Lizard Island, Vostok and Top Me Up for the early positions just depending on how they jump and stable intention. It's difficult to make a decision on the pace factor with just one leader. River Wild may rocket along or just prop early and make the race a sprint home. Let's assume the pace will be fair to all runners: we don't have any evidence to suggest otherwise.
CHANCESCS Hayes Stakes 1400mOrderMargin
Ready For Victory PLUS: Unlucky first up, handicapper's selection via ratings. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back, one win from six runs but several excellent Group 1 runs in the losing races.    
Bon Aurum PLUS: Two wins from three distance runs, a track and distance winner, two good track wins, totally held up last start. B 0.5
  MINUS: Races mid field, not proven this class if track is damp.    
River Wild PLUS: Lone leader, gritty performance last start with 61kg, chances improve if damp track, Waterhouse / Oliver combination. C 1
  MINUS: Class rise.    
Vostok PLUS: Needed last run off 45 days, three wins from four runs career, all wins on good tracks, distance no issue. D 1.25
  MINUS: Rain factor unknown.    
Top Me Up PLUS: Has Ready For Victory formline in August and last start, improver. E 1.5
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 20 February 2016
Flemington 6 CS Hayes Stakes 1400m
Flemington 7 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 1000m
Flemington 8 Ascot Racecourse Trophy 1400m
Flemington 9 Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy 1200m
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EXOTICS CS Hayes Stakes 1400m
Exacta

A: 5

B: 2 6 8 9

Trifecta

A: 5

B: 2 6 8 9

C: 1 2 3 4 7 9 11

First Four

A: 5

B: 2 6 8 9

C: 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11

D: 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11

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