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Flemington Race 6: Elms BM84 Handicap 2000m

On face value the run of Spanish Love was ordinary but post race it was conceded she may have been too close early and possibly on the inside rail where the going might have been inferior. Forgive her for the run and she looms large as a winning hope. However hot on her trail is Sure You Can as the win was quite strong third up over 2000m, normally a bit of an ask, so improvement fourth up is well and truly on the cards. Orion Love was disappointing last start but her fighting effort to beat Spanish Love had merit hence if we are forgiving we have to slot her into the equation. Forever Crazy is the interesting value runner as losing a plate during the run could have been enough of an issue to make her second up run seem flat. What’s of value is her third up win in Sydney last campaign and on the basis of improvement she is in with a chance, too. Naturally, Special Miss is considered but with several failed chances at the distance she is a marginal hope. Place chances go to Lucciola, Shadow Of The Mist, Royal Glance, Inishowen and Kept Woman. An interesting but difficult race.

Flemington Race 6. RaceTime: AEDT 15:55, 31/01/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (8) Shadow Of The Mist, (12) Orion Love.
On Pacers (1) Lucciola, (3) Spanish Love, (4) Suspicious Minds, (5) Kept Woman, (7) Special Mist, (13) Royal Glance.
Mid Fielders (2) Inishowen, (6) Sure You Can, (9) Turning Tables.
Get Back (10) Forever Crazy, (11) Bec Said No Credit.
PACE COMMENTS Shadow Of The Mist and Orion Love are most likely to head for the lead early with a wall of runners jostling for position off the pace. The way the race will be run should suit Spanish Love and Special Miss but I am not so sure of the back markers. I don’t see a super early pace unless one or two of my six on pacers decide to rattle the cages of those in front thus the more fancied back markers such as Sure You Can and Bec Said No Credit have the job ahead of them.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Spanish Love PLUS: Track winner, just defeated two distance runs, two wins four runs third up or deeper. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Sure You Can PLUS: Strong defeat Spanish Love track and distance. B 0.25
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Forever Crazy PLUS: Won third up last campaign, six wins good tracks, lost plate last run forgivable. C 1
  MINUS: 59.5kg , chronic get back to last type.    
Orion Love PLUS: Two from three distance. D 1.5
  MINUS: Spanish Love meets better at weights, poor run last start.    
Special Miss PLUS: 3kg claim, strong last run E 2
  MINUS: Zero wins seven runs distance.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Suspicious Minds (28 days this distance, class rise concern too).
OUTCLASSED Nil.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 31 January 2015
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