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Flemington Race 6: Francess Tressady Stakes 1400m

06/03/2015: The two runs by Girl Guide have been a tad lackluster but I have the feeling she just hasn’t been fit enough to really show her best. I look back at her distance run when it took all of Sweet Idea’s fighting ability to beat Girl Guide and if Sweet Idea was in this race she would be a short priced favourite. Girl Guide will either lead or receive a cozy run. Give her one more chance. Madam Gangster is up in class but she knows how to win races, especially at this distance. The seventy one days break is of some concern but it’s worth noting C Williams has ditched Girl Guide for the ride so he either thinks this run is going to be good or future races beckon. Scarlet Billows has been beaten a total of one length in her last three defeats and has won twice. It’s such a pity she cannot race closer in the run and the distance is a worry but she doesn’t lack guts. Politeness is a heart-breaker and her zero wins from seven runs at the track looks awful but just remember this is not a strong Group race and she has raced in tougher races. Star Fashion is a twice first up winner and last preparation beat Suavito (last weeks Group 1 wfa winner) first up in a dazzling run after being held up early in the straight at this distance. Place chances go to Girl In Flight, Dig A Pony, Scratchy Bottom and Nadeem Lass.

Flemington Race 6. RaceTime: AEDT 15:50, 07/03/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners Nil.
On Pacers (2) Girl Guide, (9) Whistle Baby.
Mid Fielders (5) Madam Gangster, (7) Dig A Pony, (10) Girl In Flight.
Get Back (1) Star Fashion, (3) Panarea, (4) Scarlet Billows, (6) Politeness, (8) Nadeem Lass, (11) Scratchy Bottom.
PACE COMMENTS In a race where there are no truly proven front runners there is always the chance the pace is going to be muddled and this race fits that bill. If I was riding Girl Guide I would lead and if I was on Whistle Baby I would sit off that runner. Possibly Madam Gangster will go forward more than normal as some first uppers tend to do but you know something, this is all supposition. It’s supposition with some claims so take my comments with a grain of salt. Regardless of who leads Girl Guide is the mare best served by the distance, barrier and pace. I would be worried about the back markers especially the likes of well fancied Politeness, Scarlet Billows, Nadeem Lass and Star Fashion.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Girl Guide PLUS: Likely leader, five from eleven good track runs, six from thirteen career, held up last run. A 0
  MINUS: Minimal distance query, has she come back?    
Madam Gangster PLUS: Three from five distance, three from nine good tracks, won last three races. B 0.5
  MINUS: Off seventy one days.    
Scarlet Billows PLUS: Four career wins eleven starts, trier, three from nine good tracks. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back main problem.    
Star Fashion PLUS: Beat Sauvito first up last time, two from five distance, five from eleven quinella good tracks. D 1.25
  MINUS: Gets back first up.    
Politeness PLUS: Highest rated by handicapper, beaten 1.9 lengths Group 1, needed first up run E 1.5
  MINUS: Gets so far back, Zero from seven track.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Nil.
OUTCLASSED Whistle Baby, Panarea.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 7 March 2015
Flemington 6 Francess Tressady Stakes 1400m
Flemington 7 Australian Guineas 1600m
Flemington 8 Ata Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m
Flemington 9 Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy BM90 1800m
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