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Flemington Race 6: Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m

11/03/2016: With the forecast for Melbourne suggesting dashes of rain over the next few days I have to concede Chautauqua spotting Japonisme, already a renowned wet tracker after just eleven starts, and the 5.5kg favours the three year old. His jockey Craig Williams will be aware Chautauqua is vulnerable with the physical weight of 58kg combined with a lesser chance to use his electrifying sprint, on a damp track, and will wait until he absolutely has to before going for home. The win by Delectation over Chautauqua in the Group 1 Darley Classic surprised most punters and after the race the Hawkes stable suggested the mighty grey just could not sprint as well on the damp track. For that reason I have to take Chautauqua on for the AB positions. At this distance and at this level I cannot see any serious chances outside my trio.

Flemington Race 6. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEDT 15:50, 12/03/2016

RACEMAPLexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m
Front Runners (1) Charmed Harmony, (5) Secret Agenda.
On Pacers (4) Keen Array, (7) Tiger Tees, (8) Japonisne.
Mid Fielders (6) Churchill Dancer, (10) Delectation, (11) Chautauqua.
Get Back (2) Blackheart Bart, (3) Counterattack, (9) The Quarterback.
PACE COMMENTS I have no doubts this race will be run at a solid pace with bold front runners like Charmed Harmony, even though his is better at 1400m in the lead, and the flying Secret Agenda, with a mere 50kg to carry, carving out the pace. It will be game on a lot earlier than in normal sprints as the classier runners, Delectation and Japonisme, will need to establish a break on Chautauqua. Tactically this is going to be a most interesting race.
CHANCESLexus Newmarket Handicap 1200mOrderMargin
Japonisme PLUS: Distance and straight track no concern, if track damp huge chance receiving weight off Delectation and Chautauqua. A 0
  MINUS: Nil if track damp.    
Delectation PLUS: Four distance wins with one victory at the track and distance, very capable this level, damp track a real bonus. B 0.5
  MINUS: Nil if track damp.    
Chautauqua PLUS: A champion with awesome statistics, enough said. C 1
  MINUS: Has to give a start to at least two budding champions Japonisme and Delectation, damp track a serious problem.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 12 March 2016
Flemington 6 Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m
Flemington 7 Australian Cup 2000m
Flemington 8 Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m
Flemington 9 My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m
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EXOTICS Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m
Exacta

A: 6

B: 2

Trifecta

A: 6

B: 2

C: 1

First Four

A: 6

B: 2

C: 1

D: 5 8 9 10

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