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Flemington Race 6: Longines MacKinnon Stakes 2000m

30/10/2015: This is one of the most difficult MacKinnon Stakes I have ever seen simply because it is a race where forgiveness for seemingly poor runs needs to be applied. If we accept the Cox Plate trifecta were classes above the rest of the field we find Pornichet has to be the A selection on his good effort, the quick backup and as he is likely to race near the lead. I would have Magic Hurricane on top but he is rising in class and hasn't raced for 28 days plus he gets back in the field. I am probably a tad precious about the factors but they are valid reasons for concern. However, he is the classic lightly raced improver and sometimes they just blow you out of the water. Rising Romance didn't give a yelp in the Caulfield Cup and Set Square was ridden poorly and had to compound. I am prepared to forgive the runs and hark back to their Turnbull Stakes runs at this track and distance. Stratum Star has to give the field a start and a beating to win this race but this campaign he has been starring and I will not leave him out. Contributer is on his last chance for me purely on his excellent distance and track conditions form and perhaps the bigger Flemington track will suit better, as well. How can you leave out the Bowman (surely Australia's best rider) and C Waller (Australia's best trainer) combination. They would be a chance in the Stawell Gift!

Flemington Race 6. RaceTime: AEDT 15:05, 31/10/2015

RACEMAPLongines MacKinnon Stakes 2000m
Front Runners (3) Ecuador.
On Pacers (4) Pornichet, (7) Contributer, (8) Set Square, (9) Flamingo Star.
Mid Fielders (1) Magic Hurricane, (2) Magic Artist, (5) Gailo Chop, (6) Happy Trails, (10) Extra Zero, (12) Rising Romance, (14) Stratum Star.
Get Back (11) Index Linked, (13) Weary, (15) Fawkner.
PACE COMMENTS The leader should be Ecuador but I feel once he hits the lead the pace will slacken as there is a distance doubt involved. That's all right for the on pacers, with Set Square the most likely to surge forward early of those runners, but the mid fielders and get back types may have problems picking up the on pacers. Just be careful not to over commit yourself with the mid fielders and get back types.
CHANCESLongines MacKinnon Stakes 2000mOrderMargin
Pornichet PLUS: Two wins from five at the distance, four wins from eleven starts on good tracks, fourth in Cox Plate. A 0
  MINUS: On face value has struggled last two Group 1 runs when at wfa.    
Magic Hurricane PLUS: Distance not an issue, five wins from sixteen runs, lightly raced improver. B 0.25
  MINUS: Three wins on wet tracks, gets back a fraction, 28 days break.    
Rising Romance PLUS: Two huge runs last two starts this track, drawn to get run out wide. C 0.5
  MINUS: Mare versus males minor concern, flat effort in Caulfield Cup a forgive run?    
Stratum Star PLUS: Distance winner, four good track wins, lost a plate last run equals good effort. D 0.75
  MINUS: Will be almost last early.    
Set Square PLUS: Four placings from five runs at track with VRC Oaks win, poor ride in Caulfield Cup, top Turnbull Stakes run. E 1
  MINUS: Mare versus males.    
Contributer PLUS: Five wins from seven distance runs, eight wins from seventeen career runs, seven good track wins. F 1.5
  MINUS: Runs this time in have seemed flat, one more chance this distance.    
Flamingo Star PLUS: Bowman Waller combination, held up last run, distance query. G 2
  MINUS: Three wins on wet tracks versus one on good tracks.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 31 October 2015
Flemington 6 Longines MacKinnon Stakes 2000m
Flemington 7 AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m
Flemington 8 Myer Classic 1600m
Flemington 9 Stakes 1400m
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