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Flemington Race 6: Nightline BM78 Handicap 2000m

10/04/2015: There’s value in this race if you are prepare to take on the favourite, which I am to a certain extent. I am going for Mendivil as his three runs this campaign have all been strong efforts with him caught wide first and second up and just running out of steam third up. He represents good each way value. Although it looks tough for Second Bullet drawn in the car park I think he can edge over with relative ease and bide his time just off the pace. Last campaign he showed a fair bit of fight in his two runs prior to a break and this son of top mare Private Steer can give Mendivil a fair bit of cheek. Special Miss has to be entertained as a top chance with the handy 3 kg claim as a mare against the males. If she gets a soft lead watch out. Whistle Stop just bothers me with the run in transit, as per my race map comments, and although a win, even by a couple of lengths, would not surprise I am asking for a decent price and around $5 would have me covering any win bets on my other chances. Martian needs a bit of luck near the fence but they do wobble a bit in the straight at Flemington and he might get the run he needs. If so he is hard to beat. Tucanchoo was terrific at Sandown defeating subsequent winner Arogonese and last start the front runners track did not help. He’s fair odds around the $9.00 mark. Place chances to Golden Mane, Rodway, Soviet Courage and One Inch Punch in a wild old race.

Flemington Race 6. RaceTime: AEST 15:35, 11/04/2015

Front Runners (3) Special Miss, (11) Mendivil.
On Pacers (17) Settlers Way, (20) One Inch Punch.
Mid Fielders (1) Captain Teemo, (4) Martian, (6) Soviet Courage, (8) Kareeming, (9) Whistle Stop, (10) Rodway, (14) Golden Mane, (19) Second Bullet.
Get Back (2) Cleansing Ale, (5) Aurum Spirit, (7) The Wingman, (11) Me Hungi, (12) Letmehandleit, (13) Tampiere, (15) Tucanchoo, (18) Artistic Lass
PACE COMMENTS For such a big field you would expect quite a few front runners and on pacers to dominate a race map but, for this field, this is not so, on face value. I see Special Miss leading with Mendivil on her outside with One Inch Punch, Settlers Way and Second Bullet coming across from their wide barriers. Once the slight see saw effect is finished in front it’s just a matter of the pace whether the mid fielders decide to totally drop back or move forward and try and snag a good spot. Looking at the likely positions early I suspect the favourite Whistle Stop is going to have to drop right back early as otherwise being caught wide is a strong possibility. This means a circling job around the field or praying for a miracle split upon straightening. I am not saying he cannot win but about $3.60 I will be seeking better value elsewhere.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Mendivil PLUS: Sits off pace, needed last run 3rd up this distance, won five from seventeen third up deeper, 2kg claim. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Second Bullet PLUS: One win, one wide length defeat two distance, second up last run stronger today, three good track wins. B 0.25
  MINUS: Wide barrier with 57kg.    
Special Miss PLUS: Easy lead, three wins 1900m to 2040m, 3kg claim very helpful. C 0.5
  MINUS: Mare versus males, better at Moonee Valley?    
Whistle Stop PLUS: Two from four with D Weir, easiest of wins last run with 59.5kg. D 1
  MINUS: Goes back, in tougher grade, , barrier draw issues see racemap.    
Martian PLUS: Classic lightly raced improver, two from two distance, two from four good. E 1.25
  MINUS: Midfielder requiring luck from barrier.    
Tucanchoo PLUS: Aragonese form line strong, got back leaders track last run forgive?, three from ten improver Hawkes Team. F 1.75
  MINUS: Gets back from wide barrier, first distance run.    
RISKY The Wingman (impossible to follow), Golden Mane (second up distance worries but has future), Aurum Spirit and Tampiere (both rarely win), Cleansing Ale, Kareeming, Artistic Lass and Me Hungi (struggling), Captain Teemo (class rise concerns but fair run last start).
OUTCLASSED Let Me Handle It, Settlers Way.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 11 April 2015
Flemington 6 Nightline BM78 Handicap 2000m
Flemington 7 Galilee Series Final 2500m
Flemington 8 Ross Stevenson Trophy 1600m
Flemington 9 Darren James Trophy 2500m
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