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Flemington Race 6: Plenary Group Handicap 2000m

11/12/15: With a dawdling early pace and a field of evenly graded horses this race is a tough punting conundrum. In this type of race the punters are essentially guessing and I have to admit the same but with some assessment techniques I hope will work. At the double figure odds I believe War Point is overs based on his win over subsequent winner Rocbolt and if you go back a few runs he was beaten 0.7 lengths to Magicool. He was spelled the run after and had three runs earlier this year but the campaign was stopped. He was checked last start so it’s fair to assess him on the Rocbolt second. Crimson Cape has won three times from four runs at 1700m and was spelled after the failure (always a forgive run) and if you have a look at his breeding the word "stayer" just jumps at you. With a great run in transit, basically right near War Point, we have two selections that will race near the lead and that's a good start in this race. You cannot deny a win over Sammy The Snake was meritorious after that galloper fought courageously last Saturday for his victory at Sandown hence Trendsetter must be in with a chance, especially with a 3kg claim to boot. Bajour and Tucano are the two mystery horses as we are quite unsure of how ready they are however commonsense, based on their past runs, suggests a win by either would not shock one iota. Zenithal has to be in the mix on his close third to War Point. and his last start win was quite strong, when well backed, and when you add a handy 2kg claim to the mix he is certainly a chance.

Flemington Race 6. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 15:25, 12/12/2015

RACEMAPPlenary Group Handicap 2000m
Front Runners (3) Trendsetter, (14) Crimson Cape.
On Pacers (4) Solas, (5) McNulty, (11) War Point.
Mid Fielders (1) Bajour, (6) I'm A Tiger, (9) Tucano, (12) Flying Light, (13) Zenithal.
Get Back (2) Savvy Henry, (7) Aurum Spirit, (8) Chasing Glory, (10) Hipster Girl, (15) Seul Spirit.
PACE COMMENTS There doesn't seem to be a massive amount of pace up front with Trendsetter and Crimson Cape my only front runners. Just off them Solas, McNulty and War Point will slot into comfortable spots fairly quickly and from there the pace won't be what I call hectic. Normally I would warn against the mid fielders and back markers in a race where there is a lack of pace but I think this race is more about distance ability.
CHANCESPlenary Group Handicap 2000mOrderMargin
War Point PLUS: Beat Rocbolt two runs ago who has won since, forgive run last start when checked, has Magicool formline. A 0
  MINUS: Nil if can forgive last run.    
Crimson Cape PLUS: Won three from four runs at 1700m or longer, two good track wins, lightly raced improver from top stable. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Trendsetter PLUS: Beat Sammy The Snake last win, distance winner from two attempts, handles dry and wet tracks, 3kg claim. C 0.5
  MINUS: Flat effort last run but possibly not suited at Moonee Valley? Forgive?    
Bajour PLUS: Distance no issue at all as placed NZ St Leger at 2500m, big run first Australian start, needed last run. D 0.75
  MINUS: Mid fielder drawn on fence will need luck in straight.    
Zenithal PLUS: Two wins at the distance, four good track wins, strong last start winner when well backed. E 1.25
  MINUS: Mid fielder drawn wide.    
Tucano PLUS: Needed last run, two Australian runs have been good, distance and track conditions not an issue, hard to rate. F 1.5
  MINUS: Will get back mid field or worse, essentially second up at the distance off 28 days.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 12 December 2015
Flemington 6 Plenary Group Handicap 2000m
Flemington 7 AVHPA Vic Trophy 1600m
Flemington 8 Western Health Foundation Handicap 1200m
Flemington 9 Metricon Trophy 1700m
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EXOTICS Plenary Group Handicap 2000m
Exacta

A: 4 5 10

B: 2 3 4 5 9 10 14 15

Trifecta

A: 4 5 10

B: 2 3 4 5 9 10 14 15

C: 2 3 4 5 9 10 14 15

First Four

A: 4 5 10

B: 2 3 4 5 9 10 14 15

C: 2 3 4 5 9 10 14 15

D: 2 3 4 5 9 10 14 15

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