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Flemington Race 6: Rivette Series Final 1600m

10/07/2015: Lucy’s Look did not seem comfortable in the heavy going last start, she was unlucky the run prior and lost a plate in running yet still won the start before that, when wide as well. Those efforts has me believing she has a bit of ticker and C Waller has made the right decision to bring her south for the drier track. Kansas Sunflower really stuck to her task off a seven week break and with a drier track she will also improve. Kaizaen was ordinary last start but perhaps she still needed the outing third up off a long break. If you study her 0.7 length defeat by Firehouse Rock over 1700m last spring she makes appeal in this race. It’s difficult to assess Hard Lil as her win on soft going two runs ago was terrific but then she flopped on the heavy last start when you would have thought a better run was in the offering. She will get a good run off the pace which will help. Manageress hasn’t been the luckiest filly of recent weeks as she was held up two runs ago finishing three lengths from Kaizaen (it should have been less) and last start was caught wide most of the race. Give her chance, too: she cannot be unlucky every start!

Flemington Race 6. RaceTime: AEST 14:50, 11/07/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (6) Elegantly Wasted.
On Pacers (1) Lucy's Look, (3) Hard Lil, (4) Champagne Cocktail, (5) Comic Miss.
Mid Fielders (2) Violent Snow, (7) Sebring Warrior, (9) Kansas Sunflower, (12) Kaizaen, (15) Unassailed, (17) Hi Spun.
Get Back (8) Vertical Hold, (10) Penny To Sell, (11) Bonnie Belle, (13) Darcy's Law, (14) Explosive One, (16) Managaress, (18) She Can Shazam.
PACE COMMENTS This race is a bit tricky early with my on pacers and lone leader likely to have the right horses within those positions but not necessarily as I have them. I can imagine any of my on pacers leading on their day. All told the keenness for a forward position will suggest the pace will be suitable for most runners.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Lucy's Look PLUS: Drier track better option, positive C Waller move, lightly raced improver, on pacer. A 0
  MINUS: Wet tracks, distance query.    
Kansas Sunflower PLUS: Needed first up run off 49 days, one from one track and distance, two wins good tracks. B 0.25
  MINUS: Second up distance, gets back.    
Manageress PLUS: Unlucky last two runs, another lightly raced improver. C 0.75
  MINUS: One win from seven runs.    
Kaizaen PLUS: Distance no query, fitter off long spell. D 1.25
  MINUS: One career win, last run looked flat.    
Hard Lil PLUS: On pacer, distance not issue off strong 1500m win, lightly raced improver. E 2
  MINUS: 24 days break, exact distance concern.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 11 July 2015
Flemington 6 Rivette Series Final 1600m
Flemington 7 Winter Championship Series Final 1600m
Flemington 8 All Victorian Sprint Series Final 1200m
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