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Flemington Race 6: VRC St Leger 2800m

24/04/2015: The VRC St Leger is often a guess race due to the increased distance and it’s the same this year but at least several of the main chances have distance form close to the 2800m they are needing to conquer. Zatopaz with a strong 2.5 lengths win over 2600m has strong credentials and the same applies to Authoritarian, a 4.5 lengths winner in a 2424m Geelong maiden. Cuban Fighter won easily over 2222m in a Seymour maiden and All I Survey ran a quite respectable 2.95 lengths defeat in the Galilee Series final a fortnight ago behind the promising Manapine. I don’t have a handle on the New Zealand visitor but respected Trent Busittin hasn’t made the Tasman trip for his health and I am slotting him in as the wild card. Place chances have to be accorded to Colour Of Money, General Zabeel and Montpelier.

Flemington Race 6. RaceTime: AEST 16:00, 25/04/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (4) Authoritarian, (7) Cuban Fighter.
On Pacers (3) Beserk, (5) Colour Of Money, (9) Zatopaz, (12) Beltum.
Mid Fielders (1) General Zabeel, (5) Gifted Lad, (11) Montpelier, (13) General James, (14) Gold Seal.
Get Back (2) Dane Hussler, (8) All I Survey, (10) Prince Of Persia.
PACE COMMENTS I don't see the pace as being all that fast early with Cuban Fighter and Authoritarian as the two most likely to lead and the on pacers trying to slot in as soon as possible to help with running out the distance. I would be seeking each way odds at about $6.00 or more about All I Survey who I have as a back marker. To my mind the race map doesn't suit him but in a race over this distance perhaps it's more about the distance than the pace so I am not knocking his winning chances but at least seek a good price.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Zatopaz PLUS: In form improver close to distance, lightly raced, on pacer. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Authoritarian PLUS: In form improver close to distance, lightly raced, likely leader. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
All I Survey PLUS: In form improver close to distance, lightly raced. C 0.5
  MINUS: Gets back in race of suspect pace.    
Cuban Fighter PLUS: Easy last start winner, likely leader. D 0.75
  MINUS: Yet to place good track seven runs, zero from four track.    
Gifted Lad PLUS: New Zealand visitor obviously set for race. E 1
  MINUS: Class rise some doubt and distance too.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY General James (distance doubt on last run).
OUTCLASSED Beserk, Beltum, Gold Seal, Prince Of Persia and Dane Hussler.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 25 April 2015
Flemington 5 Hugo Throssell VC Handicap 1400m
Flemington 6 VRC St Leger 2800m
Flemington 7 Peter Armytage Handicap 1700m
Flemington 8 Auckland Racing Club Trophy 1200m
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