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Flemington Race 7: AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m

30/10/2015: Only Billy The Blind Miner would have missed the enormous run by Tarzino last Saturday at The Vase when, in my opinion, the jockey was having a sleep at the back of the field early in the race. How he got so close was amazing and basically this race is his to lose if the Moonee Valley run means anything. Take The Picture's run at Caulfield was excellent when giving all runners a start, going six/seven wide on the home turn whilst running terrific sectionals. Kia Ora Koutou, trained by top class trainer Adam Durrant, is the unknown quantity as he is unbeaten and we just don't know how good he actually is. Last start he beat a hardy WA horse called Verdello Blue in an open BM72+ event comfortably at his first staying attempt. Etmology hasn't had the best of luck in his last two runs and his breeding says he can run 3200m so this distance shouldn't be an issue. Lizard Island has form around Tarzino and was caught wide early last run but he didn't shirk the issue when tackled.

Flemington Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 15:50, 31/10/2015

RACEMAPAAMI Victoria Derby 2500m
Front Runners (4) Jadeer, (7) Palace Tycoon, (11) Shards, (12) Ayers Rock.
On Pacers (1) Kia Ora Koutou, (2) Red Alto, (3) Lizard Island, (14) Colonel Custer, (16) Man Of Choice.
Mid Fielders (5) Get The Picture, (6) Iron Boss, (9) Etymology, (10) Tarzino, (15) Pay Up Bro.
Get Back (8) Scadden's Run, (13) Bullish Stock, (17) Extra Choice.
PACE COMMENTS Calculating in running positions for a race like the Victoria Derby, where no runners have run at the distance, becomes a bit of a guessing game as connections attempt to assist their horse run the extra distances. Horses that might lead over 2000m are suddenly restrained just off the pace and mid fielder types can be sitting on the pace! I have nine horses either likely leaders or on pacers, which has me fairly confident the race will be run to suit all the main chances so forget about pace and concentrate on the distance factor.
CHANCESAAMI Victoria Derby 2500mOrderMargin
Tarzino PLUS: Enormous Derby trial at unsuitable tight track, breeding has staying blood everywhere. A 0
  MINUS: Gets backs.    
Get The Picture PLUS: Big run when wide last starting running top sectionals, by UK sire suggesting staying blood. B 1.25
  MINUS: D Oliver ridden off good barrier, but can get back.    
Kia Ora Koutou PLUS: Unbeaten Perth horse, top trainer, box seat, winner over 2200m against open age runners. C 1.5
  MINUS: 28 days break.    
Etymology PLUS: Held up for run last start, third to Tarzino three runs ago in The Cove Hotel Handicap, wide two runs ago was a forgive run. D 2
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Lizard Island PLUS: Two seconds this track, four seconds from five good track runs, worked early last run. E 2.25
  MINUS: Distance query.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 31 October 2015
Flemington 6 Longines MacKinnon Stakes 2000m
Flemington 7 AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m
Flemington 8 Myer Classic 1600m
Flemington 9 TAB.com.au Stakes 1400m
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