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Flemington Race 7: Australian Cup 2000m

13/03/2015: Mourinho has been on fire this campaign and the way the race is going to be run he has a top chance. The flies in the ointment for him are the overseas brigade with Au Revoir and Protectionist leading the charge as both will improve dramatically second up. Happy Trails stars at Flemington with three wins and two of the wins at this distance but he has to give a start and a beating to some smart horses. If Mourinho figures, and he does, then Akzar does too and who could deny chances, albeit rough ones, to Red Cadeaux and Foreteller. Place chances go to Spillway and Entirely Platinum, just.

Flemington Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 16:30, 14/03/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (9) The Cleaner, (12) Greatwood.
On Pacers (1) Entirely Platinum, (6) Lidari, (10) Au Revoir, (13) Mourinho, (15) Big Memory.
Mid Fielders (2) Puccini, (3) Protectionist, (4) Happy Trails, (8) Spillway, (11) Akzar.
Get Back (5) Foreteller, (7) Sonntag, (14) Red Cadeaux, (16) Extra Zero.
PACE COMMENTS Although Greatwood is a front runner no one would expect him to take on The Cleaner. I expect the field to spread out so essentially forget about the barriers. The way the race is going to be run I expect the pace to be solid enough for the true wfa horses to be challenging half way down the running.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Mourinho PLUS: In outstanding form, gets top run, tough in finish, four distance wins, eight good track wins. A 0
  MINUS: Nil    
Au Revoir PLUS: Good first up, gets reasonable run through race. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Protectionist PLUS: Melbourne Cup winner, three from three quinella second up. C 0.5
  MINUS: Just an average first up run    
Happy Trails PLUS: Flemington specialist, two from four track and distance. D 1
  MINUS: Held by Mourinho last run, gets back.    
Akzar PLUS: Improver this level on last run, two from seven track and distance. E 2
  MINUS: Gets back.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY The Cleaner (not strong enough second up this level), Puccini (NZ form not strong enough), Lidari (not on two runs this campaign).
OUTCLASSED Extra Zero, Big Memory, Sonntag, Greatwood.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 14 March 2015
Flemington 6 Newmarket Handicap 1200m
Flemington 7 Australian Cup 2000m
Flemington 8 Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m
Flemington 9 My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m
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